{ "ticker": { "uuid": "846c704c-a41f-4e9f-8545-5760881745a5", "symbol": "IDX", "name": "VANECK ETF TR VANECK INDONESIA INDEX ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.398, "architecture_energy": 29.002, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.712, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.54, "rotation_up": 27.91, "upward_expansion": 22.57, "deceleration": 46.96, "rotation_down": 28.88, "downward_expansion": 61.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.036, 10.798364, 11.154429, 11.868473 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 11.48, "trend_reference": 13.011333, "distance_from_trend": -0.117692, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.830312, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.22591, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.271539, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.261736, "excess_performance": -0.387361, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.117692, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132942, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.22591, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072233, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.292715, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045063, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.261736, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.345298, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 208030, "relative_activity": 0.623264, "balance": 0.345298, "dry_up": 1.047221, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0672, "annualized_volatility": 0.372515, "from_high_reference": -0.336991, "from_low_reference": 0.20715 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.011333, "fair_value_reference": 14.830312, "structural_low": 9.51, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.008241, "positive_rate": 0.566667, "directional_follow_through": 0.433333, "median_excess_return": -0.004994, "regime_survival": 0.766667, "best_return": 0.184165, "worst_return": -0.174711, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.012209, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.066223, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.215751, "worst_return": -0.177463, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.00575, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.062236, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.14431, "worst_return": -0.02427, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"fair_value": 14.973742, "relative_strength": -37.054894, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.148677, "energy": 64.494509, "activity_lines": [ 10.385333, 10.579455, 11.577476, 12.503247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.9, "volume": 209654, "typical_volume": 307645.9, "trend": 13.578167, "fair_value": 14.936021, "relative_strength": -31.903045, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.183671, "energy": 61.90444, "activity_lines": [ 10.511333, 10.571273, 11.430476, 12.317634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.82, "volume": 864253, "typical_volume": 337420.35, "trend": 13.384833, "fair_value": 14.898196, "relative_strength": -31.449504, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.657791, "energy": 53.786958, "activity_lines": [ 10.605333, 10.585818, 11.299524, 12.139688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.89, "volume": 116208, "typical_volume": 329472.55, "trend": 13.189, "fair_value": 14.861635, "relative_strength": -31.14733, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.145968, "energy": 44.261688, "activity_lines": [ 10.741333, 10.637091, 11.19219, 11.978731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.48, "volume": 208030, "typical_volume": 333775.05, "trend": 13.011333, "fair_value": 14.830312, "relative_strength": -29.271539, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.398272, "energy": 29.002235, "activity_lines": [ 11.036, 10.798364, 11.154429, 11.868473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }