{ "ticker": { "uuid": "847e7807-7dcd-46f7-8a96-1df3110f4b23", "symbol": "PTBL3", "name": "PBG S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.904, "architecture_energy": 65.498, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.73, "rotation_up": 29.69, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 53.94, "rotation_down": 51.75, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.652, 1.670727, 1.795, 2.042065 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.58, "trend_reference": 2.412333, "distance_from_trend": -0.345032, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.296282, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.63224, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -49.291443, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.524096, "excess_performance": -0.467048, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.345032, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.180964, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.63224, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085753, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.492914, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014262, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.524096, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.446154, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1043600, "relative_activity": 0.703464, "balance": 0.446154, "dry_up": 0.78801, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100292, "annualized_volatility": 0.504729, "from_high_reference": -0.640909, "from_low_reference": 0.019355 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.412333, "fair_value_reference": 4.296282, "structural_low": 1.55, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.000831, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.028334, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.348936, "worst_return": -0.235849, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.065574, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.050101, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.707229, "worst_return": -0.334615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.130796, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.029238, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.298912, "worst_return": -0.312169, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.183445, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.124744, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.0825, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.169355, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.182033, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.099029, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.106132, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.074271, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066339, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.582011, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.79, "volume": 8511600, "typical_volume": 6380605.0, "trend": 6.75617, "fair_value": 8.24504, "relative_strength": -17.128082, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": 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"relative_strength": -48.155186, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.647778, "energy": 67.275888, "activity_lines": [ 1.710667, 1.727455, 1.934476, 2.21314 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.65, "volume": 821700, "typical_volume": 1452400.0, "trend": 2.521, "fair_value": 4.374359, "relative_strength": -49.651435, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.949447, "energy": 65.112388, "activity_lines": [ 1.698667, 1.705636, 1.882095, 2.153742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.68, "volume": 1567300, "typical_volume": 1461560.0, "trend": 2.47, "fair_value": 4.333141, "relative_strength": -48.765385, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.551204, "energy": 60.786934, "activity_lines": [ 1.694, 1.695091, 1.839857, 2.099484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.58, "volume": 1043600, "typical_volume": 1483515.0, "trend": 2.412333, "fair_value": 4.296282, "relative_strength": -49.291443, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.904127, "energy": 65.497775, "activity_lines": [ 1.652, 1.670727, 1.795, 2.042065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }