{ "ticker": { "uuid": "847fe24c-3520-4fe0-8a21-9fa72d028c41", "symbol": "BETH", "name": "PROSHARES BITCOIN & ETHER MARKET CAP WEIGHT ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.249, "architecture_energy": 31.001, "architecture_maturity": 70.356, "architecture_confidence": 79.015, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.87, "rotation_up": 26.88, "upward_expansion": 16.63, "deceleration": 46.45, "rotation_down": 28.1, "downward_expansion": 59.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.453222, 34.973937, 36.771268, 37.795395 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 35.9533, "trend_reference": 39.709965, "distance_from_trend": -0.094603, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 46.972455, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.234588, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.861549, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.092745, "excess_performance": -0.21837, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.094603, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132217, "read": "Falling" 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31.81638, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.007719, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.002046, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.157299, "worst_return": -0.242674, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.184522, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.233206, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.131886, "worst_return": -0.237158, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.337766, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.431968, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.337766, "worst_return": -0.337766, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"gate": "down", "direction": -48.525799, "energy": 42.147177, "activity_lines": [ 35.035641, 34.97687, 37.370145, 38.459445 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.848101, "volume": 2861, "typical_volume": 11154.45, "trend": 40.255758, "fair_value": 47.046909, "relative_strength": -35.737263, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.670573, "energy": 35.841102, "activity_lines": [ 35.130638, 34.811813, 37.00554, 38.072973 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.9533, "volume": 11622, "typical_volume": 10268.85, "trend": 39.709965, "fair_value": 46.972455, "relative_strength": -34.861549, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.249073, "energy": 31.000552, "activity_lines": [ 35.453222, 34.973937, 36.771268, 37.795395 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }