{ "ticker": { "uuid": "84802fe9-f3a8-4e3f-b07f-5cff6c4c30a6", "symbol": "KEP", "name": "Korea Electric Power Corp ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.631, "architecture_energy": 49.826, "architecture_maturity": 71.524, "architecture_confidence": 86.526, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.79, "rotation_up": 27.18, "upward_expansion": 8.09, "deceleration": 59.69, "rotation_down": 47.51, "downward_expansion": 79.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.104, 12.186, 12.764286, 13.729742 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.49, "trend_reference": 15.403, "distance_from_trend": -0.189119, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.24988, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.218551, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.717656, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.420686, "excess_performance": -0.546311, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.189119, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083159, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.218551, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.358543, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.267177, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190431, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.420686, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.95927, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4579847, "relative_activity": 0.943053, "balance": 0.95927, "dry_up": 1.192334, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087763, "annualized_volatility": 0.477099, "from_high_reference": -0.466467, "from_low_reference": 0.110222 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.403, "fair_value_reference": 10.24988, "structural_low": 11.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.001101, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": -0.016182, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.266776, "worst_return": -0.163146, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.036845, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.01621, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.35462, "worst_return": -0.290023, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.055086, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.0328, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.887228, "worst_return": -0.310811, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 4528170.05, "trend": 16.040244, "fair_value": 10.126939, "relative_strength": -26.811201, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.674854, "energy": 59.064581, "activity_lines": [ 12.445333, 12.64, 13.516476, 14.718867 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.37, "volume": 7886345, "typical_volume": 4739926.85, "trend": 15.872863, "fair_value": 10.151938, "relative_strength": -31.484193, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.193832, "energy": 73.302225, "activity_lines": [ 12.059333, 12.348364, 13.227238, 14.417561 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.06, "volume": 5496465, "typical_volume": 4707372.1, "trend": 15.722667, "fair_value": 10.18216, "relative_strength": -26.577336, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.00378, "energy": 57.828082, "activity_lines": [ 11.996, 12.256545, 13.042429, 14.17157 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.95, "volume": 5199181, "typical_volume": 4779590.75, "trend": 15.565667, "fair_value": 10.213644, "relative_strength": -27.742027, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.886816, "energy": 55.750253, "activity_lines": [ 11.958667, 12.161818, 12.867476, 13.928172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.49, "volume": 4579847, "typical_volume": 4856406.6, "trend": 15.403, "fair_value": 10.24988, "relative_strength": -26.717656, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.631372, "energy": 49.825694, "activity_lines": [ 12.104, 12.186, 12.764286, 13.729742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }