{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8482109e-4ac1-4118-8bd3-80a837c8ae56", "symbol": "4168", "name": "GlycoNex Incorporation", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.416, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.256, "architecture_energy": 57.5, "architecture_maturity": 10.678, "architecture_confidence": 84.617, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.21, "rotation_up": 10.1, "upward_expansion": 11.8, "deceleration": 38.42, "rotation_down": 69.06, "downward_expansion": 87.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.82, 23.531818, 24.175, 24.329892 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 22.799999, "trend_reference": 24.876666, "distance_from_trend": -0.083479, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.297676, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.098731, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.06005, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.149254, "excess_performance": -0.590626, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.083479, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01022, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.098731, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048843, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.3406, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016732, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.149254, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.041251, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 433200, "relative_activity": 0.28316, "balance": 1.041251, "dry_up": 0.426629, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093117, "annualized_volatility": 0.334655, "from_high_reference": -0.24, "from_low_reference": 0.109489 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.876666, "fair_value_reference": 25.297676, "structural_low": 21.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.002234, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002914, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.444444, "worst_return": -0.297297, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.017483, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.058053, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.474164, "worst_return": -0.311715, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.017178, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.146835, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.244554, "worst_return": -0.165385, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.057203, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00463, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.15814, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023897, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.159722, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008475, "active": 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balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.44621, "energy": 22.390825, "activity_lines": [ 24.603334, 25.136364, 24.793571, 24.951935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.049999, "volume": 684101, "typical_volume": 1576405.75, "trend": 25.28, "fair_value": 25.445432, "relative_strength": -32.465965, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.423478, "energy": 29.037683, "activity_lines": [ 24.016667, 24.711818, 24.652619, 24.804086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.25, "volume": 984360, "typical_volume": 1583033.7, "trend": 25.115, "fair_value": 25.394791, "relative_strength": -33.142651, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.156409, "energy": 51.827776, "activity_lines": [ 23.313333, 24.168182, 24.445, 24.608602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.0, "volume": 509102, "typical_volume": 1561554.8, "trend": 25.005, "fair_value": 25.346073, "relative_strength": -31.863233, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.609052, "energy": 54.270618, "activity_lines": [ 23.016667, 23.845455, 24.318095, 24.47215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 22.799999, "volume": 433200, "typical_volume": 1529879.1, "trend": 24.876666, "fair_value": 25.297676, "relative_strength": -34.06005, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.255934, "energy": 57.500466, "activity_lines": [ 22.82, 23.531818, 24.175, 24.329892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }