{ "ticker": { "uuid": "84821d18-2080-4636-92ac-8f26997c1264", "symbol": "NFG", "name": "National Fuel Gas Company", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 80.48, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -26.027, "architecture_energy": 23.735, "architecture_maturity": 26.722, "architecture_confidence": 62.541, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.14, "rotation_up": 34.69, "upward_expansion": 18.59, "deceleration": 46.28, "rotation_down": 18.46, "downward_expansion": 52.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 81.359333, 80.226475, 80.330318, 82.391746 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 80.54, "trend_reference": 84.180942, "distance_from_trend": -0.043251, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 67.431569, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.194396, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.3982, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.05563, "excess_performance": -0.181255, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.043251, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003438, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.194396, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024255, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.143982, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027066, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.05563, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.069981, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3798581, "relative_activity": 1.025481, "balance": 1.069981, "dry_up": 0.99587, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040796, "annualized_volatility": 0.219599, "from_high_reference": -0.167201, "from_low_reference": 0.07914 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 84.180942, "fair_value_reference": 67.431569, "structural_low": 74.63352, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.000349, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.014184, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.132927, "worst_return": -0.060507, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.029627, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.036423, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.182861, "worst_return": -0.103857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.013219, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.061399, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.216045, "worst_return": -0.149512, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033913, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021298, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015887, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.042866, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043805, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": 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83.343383 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 79.1, "volume": 3202973, "typical_volume": 3804479.0, "trend": 83.955128, "fair_value": 66.596396, "relative_strength": -15.445095, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.096399, "energy": 38.562738, "activity_lines": [ 78.281575, 78.000204, 81.213359, 83.025543 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 80.94, "volume": 3689848, "typical_volume": 3822141.35, "trend": 83.984919, "fair_value": 66.80974, "relative_strength": -11.679808, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.330678, "energy": 26.570334, "activity_lines": [ 79.349907, 78.494997, 80.858794, 82.831019 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 82.49, "volume": 2775720, "typical_volume": 3763018.35, "trend": 84.069999, "fair_value": 67.030549, "relative_strength": -9.128476, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.688139, "energy": 26.019124, "activity_lines": [ 80.672007, 79.235471, 80.697441, 82.734573 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 82.31, "volume": 4491436, "typical_volume": 3790157.45, "trend": 84.093819, "fair_value": 67.240026, "relative_strength": -9.912249, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.736905, "energy": 25.852377, "activity_lines": [ 81.458, 79.909769, 80.566154, 82.621024 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 80.54, "volume": 3798581, "typical_volume": 3704193.1, "trend": 84.180942, "fair_value": 67.431569, "relative_strength": -14.3982, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.026999, "energy": 23.73506, "activity_lines": [ 81.359333, 80.226475, 80.330318, 82.391746 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }