{ "ticker": { "uuid": "84831289-e1ff-41ee-9785-5ef1eeced68b", "symbol": "RAP", "name": "Raptor Metals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 81.254, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.867, "architecture_energy": 83.682, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 77.397, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.84, "rotation_up": 9.22, "upward_expansion": 20.81, "deceleration": 37.1, "rotation_down": 78.05, "downward_expansion": 96.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.028467, 0.031691, 0.036729, 0.039572 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.03, "trend_reference": 0.043417, "distance_from_trend": -0.309021, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.025872, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.15954, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.822891, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.411765, "excess_performance": -0.47547, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.309021, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.212661, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.15954, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.48619, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.038229, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.010008, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.411765, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.45036, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2499853, "relative_activity": 0.624821, "balance": 1.45036, "dry_up": 0.437921, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.182051, "annualized_volatility": 0.74703, "from_high_reference": -0.538462, "from_low_reference": 2.177966 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.043417, "fair_value_reference": 0.025872, "structural_low": 0.022, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.028, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.039218, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 2.11245, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.114656, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.135796, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 3.718876, "worst_return": -0.384615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.17, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.186538, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 3.066265, "worst_return": -0.538462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.521445, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.595321, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.425967, "worst_return": -0.616923, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-09-01", "end": "2024-01-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.194444, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.172414, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029412, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.3, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.616923, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.516129, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.205128, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.088889, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.121951, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.272727, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071429, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.053, "volume": 777339, "typical_volume": 785899.05, "trend": 0.059873, "fair_value": 0.131554, "relative_strength": -35.359429, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.870533, "energy": 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"close": 0.036, "volume": 688841, "typical_volume": 6080039.9, "trend": 0.040945, "fair_value": 0.026853, "relative_strength": 28.594388, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.717588, "energy": 47.428054, "activity_lines": [ 0.0394, 0.041118, 0.043217, 0.043852 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.033, "volume": 3421126, "typical_volume": 5569913.0, "trend": 0.041713, "fair_value": 0.02661, "relative_strength": 16.563713, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -47.461998, "energy": 60.335755, "activity_lines": [ 0.0369, 0.039364, 0.042095, 0.043339 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.03, "volume": 796145, "typical_volume": 5054563.0, "trend": 0.042381, "fair_value": 0.026404, "relative_strength": 4.658901, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -53.252497, "energy": 70.927341, "activity_lines": [ 0.034133, 0.037318, 0.040788, 0.042584 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.024, "volume": 2299573, "typical_volume": 4737170.95, "trend": 0.042849, "fair_value": 0.026206, "relative_strength": -16.816654, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.031411, "energy": 91.278689, "activity_lines": [ 0.030067, 0.034455, 0.039024, 0.041398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.028, "volume": 1412761, "typical_volume": 4130853.75, "trend": 0.04345, "fair_value": 0.026033, "relative_strength": -6.240658, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.911815, "energy": 87.106829, "activity_lines": [ 0.028533, 0.032773, 0.037736, 0.04044 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.03, "volume": 2499853, "typical_volume": 4000909.6, "trend": 0.043417, "fair_value": 0.025872, "relative_strength": -3.822891, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.867492, "energy": 83.682317, "activity_lines": [ 0.028467, 0.031691, 0.036729, 0.039572 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }