{ "ticker": { "uuid": "848fe361-c26d-4123-865a-2ee130c21483", "symbol": "SVG", "name": "Savannah Goldfields Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.366, "architecture_energy": 27.406, "architecture_maturity": 94.436, "architecture_confidence": 63.303, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.84, "rotation_up": 25.16, "upward_expansion": 13.7, "deceleration": 65.74, "rotation_down": 38.73, "downward_expansion": 63.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.010333, 0.010309, 0.010364, 0.011233 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.01, "trend_reference": 0.012867, "distance_from_trend": -0.222798, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.02585, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.613153, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -39.519049, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.411765, "excess_performance": -0.47547, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.222798, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.186512, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.613153, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064712, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.39519, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000271, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.411765, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.696325, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 40043674, "relative_activity": 2.183701, "balance": 0.696325, "dry_up": 0.852096, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.157692, "annualized_volatility": 0.85873, "from_high_reference": -0.6875, "from_low_reference": 0.176471 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.012867, "fair_value_reference": 0.02585, "structural_low": 0.0085, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.037216, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.525, "median_excess_return": -0.040627, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.857143, "worst_return": -0.307692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.204545, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.255976, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.294118, "worst_return": -0.418181, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.026316, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.075964, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.750002, "worst_return": -0.591187, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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0.010664, 0.011851 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.011, "volume": 11002890, "typical_volume": 17473741.4, "trend": 0.013567, "fair_value": 0.026696, "relative_strength": -30.842001, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.913293, "energy": 24.63087, "activity_lines": [ 0.0108, 0.010282, 0.010607, 0.011672 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.01, "volume": 1078324, "typical_volume": 16833952.2, "trend": 0.013233, "fair_value": 0.026307, "relative_strength": -38.003347, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.263806, "energy": 21.762896, "activity_lines": [ 0.0106, 0.0103, 0.010474, 0.011442 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.01, "volume": 40043674, "typical_volume": 18337524.55, "trend": 0.012867, "fair_value": 0.02585, "relative_strength": -39.519049, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.366009, "energy": 27.406126, "activity_lines": [ 0.010333, 0.010309, 0.010364, 0.011233 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }