{ "ticker": { "uuid": "849540bc-e707-4009-951d-2848a6b3dfd3", "symbol": "TRUP", "name": "Trupanion Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 68.259, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 3.054, "architecture_energy": 6.885, "architecture_maturity": 14.316, "architecture_confidence": 51.799, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.66, "rotation_up": 34.25, "upward_expansion": 36.6, "deceleration": 33.57, "rotation_down": 24.77, "downward_expansion": 44.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.607333, 25.454182, 24.799333, 25.15486 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 26.99, "trend_reference": 26.273, "distance_from_trend": 0.02729, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 35.49, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.239504, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -28.362195, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.186313, "excess_performance": -0.373767, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.02729, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13237, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.239504, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068421, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.283622, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.197281, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.186313, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.400297, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3960261, "relative_activity": 2.105896, "balance": 1.400297, "dry_up": 1.163801, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092192, "annualized_volatility": 0.526076, "from_high_reference": -0.478707, "from_low_reference": 0.27552 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.273, "fair_value_reference": 35.49, "structural_low": 21.16, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.081297, "positive_rate": 0.368421, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": -0.053673, "regime_survival": 0.578947, "best_return": 0.346993, "worst_return": -0.282536, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.133282, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.163319, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.530968, "worst_return": -0.55617, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.203897, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.192062, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.858392, "worst_return": -0.52359, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.510742, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.243601, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.760297, "worst_return": -0.585831, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.190992, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.118499, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072375, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.001008, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048255, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.418562, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.186349, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001005, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.054966, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.112695, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.014308, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.097887, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.21298, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010861, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 28.74, "volume": 3841907, "typical_volume": 6441328.65, "trend": 36.5985, "fair_value": 75.678942, "relative_strength": -46.401469, "stage": 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"energy": 18.749891, "activity_lines": [ 26.119333, 24.935273, 24.702524, 25.513054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.99, "volume": 1483102, "typical_volume": 1822556.35, "trend": 26.995667, "fair_value": 35.552628, "relative_strength": -35.018272, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.003802, "energy": 17.973354, "activity_lines": [ 25.560667, 24.931455, 24.612333, 25.289548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.49, "volume": 1694797, "typical_volume": 1815828.9, "trend": 26.572, "fair_value": 35.510897, "relative_strength": -32.874712, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.099569, "energy": 9.446742, "activity_lines": [ 25.138667, 24.988364, 24.58619, 25.127892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.99, "volume": 3960261, "typical_volume": 1880558.5, "trend": 26.273, "fair_value": 35.49, "relative_strength": -28.362195, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.054448, "energy": 6.884913, "activity_lines": [ 25.607333, 25.454182, 24.799333, 25.15486 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }