{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8498ec8a-fc83-4118-8de1-734895e7a203", "symbol": "BIRM", "name": "Birman Wood & Hardware Ltd", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.094, "architecture_energy": 19.978, "architecture_maturity": 38.931, "architecture_confidence": 85.86, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.57, "rotation_up": 19.97, "upward_expansion": 15.07, "deceleration": 68.05, "rotation_down": 51.86, "downward_expansion": 42.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.758933, 8.927364, 95.050801, 88.96325 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.811, "trend_reference": 72.779733, "distance_from_trend": -0.878936, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.196862, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.603052, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -80.604851, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.037223, "excess_performance": -0.066123, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.878936, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008673, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.603052, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.575182, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.806049, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.528179, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.037223, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.095665, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 106, "relative_activity": 0.06028, "balance": 0.095665, "dry_up": 0.339504, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 17.390526, "annualized_volatility": 9.141695, "from_high_reference": -0.991073, "from_low_reference": 0.099177 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 72.779733, "fair_value_reference": 22.196862, "structural_low": 8.016, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.126973, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.137391, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.092281, "worst_return": -0.201649, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.054352, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.165087, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.123992, "worst_return": -0.301874, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.105208, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.425335, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.400183, "worst_return": -0.264318, "sufficient": false }, { 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9.4414, 164.608963, 140.684776, 109.676853 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.341, "volume": 16609, "typical_volume": 2566.45, "trend": 72.985001, "fair_value": 22.314905, "relative_strength": -81.399108, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.055125, "energy": 34.724316, "activity_lines": [ 9.0166, 129.849436, 131.515144, 105.5016 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.06, "volume": 1646, "typical_volume": 2645.1, "trend": 72.937523, "fair_value": 22.302535, "relative_strength": -80.135834, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.168061, "energy": 30.412463, "activity_lines": [ 8.936067, 95.242018, 122.417591, 101.377407 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.684, "volume": 626, "typical_volume": 1784.7, "trend": 72.873014, "fair_value": 22.268071, "relative_strength": -81.393789, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.070326, "energy": 25.164849, "activity_lines": [ 8.782, 60.585145, 113.284353, 97.232018 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.704, "volume": 10, "typical_volume": 1753.25, "trend": 72.807887, "fair_value": 22.229016, "relative_strength": -80.820189, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.676326, "energy": 21.887909, "activity_lines": [ 8.7112, 25.955654, 104.15939, 93.092082 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.811, "volume": 106, "typical_volume": 1758.45, "trend": 72.779733, "fair_value": 22.196862, "relative_strength": -80.604851, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.093871, "energy": 19.977756, "activity_lines": [ 8.758933, 8.927364, 95.050801, 88.96325 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }