{ "ticker": { "uuid": "849b81ce-b547-4311-86c5-261dd5635593", "symbol": "ENRS", "name": "Enerside Energy, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.089, "architecture_energy": 40.814, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.028, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.38, "rotation_up": 27.72, "upward_expansion": 19.45, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 39.08, "downward_expansion": 69.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.462333, 0.442073, 0.533781, 0.622718 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.595, "trend_reference": 0.748467, "distance_from_trend": -0.205041, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.589674, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.770241, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -59.529037, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.42233, "excess_performance": -0.546761, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.205041, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.283878, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.770241, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030452, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.59529, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026967, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.42233, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.556666, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2663888, "relative_activity": 8.23212, "balance": 2.556666, "dry_up": 3.322543, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.185003, "annualized_volatility": 1.142766, "from_high_reference": -0.794828, "from_low_reference": 0.919355 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.748467, "fair_value_reference": 2.589674, "structural_low": 0.31, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.080788, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.730769, "median_excess_return": -0.110087, "regime_survival": 0.923077, "best_return": 0.522727, "worst_return": -0.335821, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.241706, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.333413, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.263566, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.264177, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.408253, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": -0.004489, "worst_return": -0.58, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.064327, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.012121, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.794828, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.38, "volume": 13118, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.584552, "energy": 66.891433, "activity_lines": [ 0.402133, 0.440764, 0.571129, 0.660735 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.36, "volume": 449246, "typical_volume": 199174.05, "trend": 0.7633, "fair_value": 2.615347, "relative_strength": -75.977381, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.784946, "energy": 68.267912, "activity_lines": [ 0.391067, 0.417418, 0.540276, 0.633576 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.595, "volume": 2663888, "typical_volume": 323596.85, "trend": 0.748467, "fair_value": 2.589674, "relative_strength": -59.529037, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.08877, "energy": 40.813744, "activity_lines": [ 0.462333, 0.442073, 0.533781, 0.622718 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }