{ "ticker": { "uuid": "849bb845-1b69-45c4-b452-73796b1e37a1", "symbol": "RHI", "name": "Red Hill Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 66.858, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.687, "architecture_energy": 57.53, "architecture_maturity": 4.367, "architecture_confidence": 77.058, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.43, "rotation_up": 16.39, "upward_expansion": 16.84, "deceleration": 32.7, "rotation_down": 65.05, "downward_expansion": 85.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.639333, 4.681273, 4.706429, 4.737608 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.63, "trend_reference": 4.771139, "distance_from_trend": -0.029582, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.874185, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.19509, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.078175, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.006849, "excess_performance": -0.070555, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.029582, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031321, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.19509, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07136, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.010782, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.184677, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.006849, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.942947, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30183, "relative_activity": 0.593793, "balance": 0.942947, "dry_up": 1.164652, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027579, "annualized_volatility": 0.165753, "from_high_reference": -0.119772, "from_low_reference": 0.528286 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.771139, "fair_value_reference": 3.874185, "structural_low": 4.29, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.004854, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.025318, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.104255, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.094965, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.003072, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.331546, "worst_return": -0.23301, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.146593, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.055182, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.297352, "worst_return": 0.021282, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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3.844667, "relative_strength": 8.572757, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.545132, "energy": 20.637191, "activity_lines": [ 4.741333, 4.725273, 4.744876, 4.768108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.66, "volume": 28437, "typical_volume": 75505.15, "trend": 4.788935, "fair_value": 3.85457, "relative_strength": 8.501004, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.511269, "energy": 23.721767, "activity_lines": [ 4.712, 4.714182, 4.733381, 4.760374 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.59, "volume": 112307, "typical_volume": 62219.6, "trend": 4.783931, "fair_value": 3.864025, "relative_strength": 3.930592, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.699981, "energy": 51.323354, "activity_lines": [ 4.662667, 4.692909, 4.716857, 4.747539 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.63, "volume": 30183, "typical_volume": 50830.85, "trend": 4.771139, "fair_value": 3.874185, "relative_strength": 1.078175, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.686938, "energy": 57.53047, "activity_lines": [ 4.639333, 4.681273, 4.706429, 4.737608 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }