{ "ticker": { "uuid": "84a23124-f15a-4372-932b-4e61e855f5d1", "symbol": "TTR1", "name": "technotrans SE", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 67.689, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 27.052, "architecture_energy": 13.666, "architecture_maturity": 32.289, "architecture_confidence": 74.058, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.11, "rotation_up": 31.87, "upward_expansion": 57.08, "deceleration": 79.23, "rotation_down": 32.54, "downward_expansion": 23.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.16, 30.46, 30.457043, 29.912463 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 30.5, "trend_reference": 29.783526, "distance_from_trend": 0.024056, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.622249, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.410584, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.075926, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.059695, "excess_performance": -0.124335, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024056, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021809, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.410584, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.187561, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.060759, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.256708, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.059695, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.980439, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 53529, "relative_activity": 1.300385, "balance": 0.980439, "dry_up": 0.880267, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090817, "annualized_volatility": 0.56305, "from_high_reference": -0.158275, "from_low_reference": 0.37334 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.783526, "fair_value_reference": 21.622249, "structural_low": 22.987875, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.018178, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.009482, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.080808, "worst_return": -0.156584, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.02, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.041448, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.148506, "worst_return": -0.045534, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.022044, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.011627, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.901174, "worst_return": -0.094956, "sufficient": 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false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.048572, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.085546, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.180328, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.109333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.750772, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": 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29.799999, "volume": 30281, "typical_volume": 44453.65, "trend": 30.138696, "fair_value": 21.460016, "relative_strength": -1.655827, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.400701, "energy": 6.839099, "activity_lines": [ 30.539999, 30.621503, 30.253684, 29.880718 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.950001, "volume": 19927, "typical_volume": 41597.1, "trend": 30.003006, "fair_value": 21.499896, "relative_strength": -5.784343, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.024133, "energy": 8.883988, "activity_lines": [ 29.896666, 30.378374, 30.2253, 29.804028 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.1, "volume": 41204, "typical_volume": 40511.6, "trend": 29.916254, "fair_value": 21.562996, "relative_strength": -1.286428, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.771528, "energy": 9.466406, "activity_lines": [ 30.106667, 30.490363, 30.383956, 29.874802 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.5, "volume": 53529, "typical_volume": 41163.95, "trend": 29.783526, "fair_value": 21.622249, "relative_strength": -6.075926, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.05161, "energy": 13.665962, "activity_lines": [ 30.16, 30.46, 30.457043, 29.912463 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }