{ "ticker": { "uuid": "84a7f8e9-0692-4062-8eac-9335483ba3da", "symbol": "AIGG", "name": "WisdomTree Grains", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 48.455, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 56.187, "architecture_energy": 58.756, "architecture_maturity": 5.751, "architecture_confidence": 66.506, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.73, "rotation_up": 66.59, "upward_expansion": 82.39, "deceleration": 49.39, "rotation_down": 9.0, "downward_expansion": 11.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.140367, 3.089091, 3.065348, 3.055603 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.085, "trend_reference": 3.018917, "distance_from_trend": 0.02189, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.2865, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.061311, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.151928, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.075475, "excess_performance": -0.095417, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.02189, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017424, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.061311, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02608, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.101519, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032835, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.075475, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.392146, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 66793, "relative_activity": 0.576458, "balance": 2.392146, "dry_up": 0.495374, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037776, "annualized_volatility": 0.201808, "from_high_reference": -0.079104, "from_low_reference": 0.142593 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.018917, "fair_value_reference": 3.2865, "structural_low": 2.8, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.015666, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.014502, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.37545, "worst_return": -0.112909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.040618, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.076981, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.355856, "worst_return": -0.100228, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.157516, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.234245, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.441987, "worst_return": -0.175614, "sufficient": false }, { 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3.038948, 3.025598 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.2815, "volume": 47937, "typical_volume": 132036.2, "trend": 3.000017, "fair_value": 3.299503, "relative_strength": -1.474009, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.584446, "energy": 58.629937, "activity_lines": [ 3.1502, 3.071182, 3.060507, 3.044781 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.094, "volume": 32917, "typical_volume": 121282.8, "trend": 3.011233, "fair_value": 3.293006, "relative_strength": -7.469898, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.726535, "energy": 50.238634, "activity_lines": [ 3.151867, 3.080355, 3.063062, 3.050844 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.085, "volume": 66793, "typical_volume": 115867.9, "trend": 3.018917, "fair_value": 3.2865, "relative_strength": -10.151928, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.186886, "energy": 58.756329, "activity_lines": [ 3.140367, 3.089091, 3.065348, 3.055603 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }