{ "ticker": { "uuid": "84ad3016-c2be-4d95-b167-ed8e20ca4e0e", "symbol": "SEMA", "name": "iShares MSCI EM UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 69.514, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.577, "architecture_energy": 24.066, "architecture_maturity": 65.332, "architecture_confidence": 79.33, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.21, "rotation_up": 18.3, "upward_expansion": 52.39, "deceleration": 93.99, "rotation_down": 35.4, "downward_expansion": 18.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 54.11, 54.972727, 54.78238, 53.490645 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 54.610001, "trend_reference": 51.804833, "distance_from_trend": 0.054149, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.775449, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.372958, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.281618, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.132048, "excess_performance": -0.038844, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.054149, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076837, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.372958, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081443, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.022816, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126248, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.132048, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.833592, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 108538, "relative_activity": 1.304939, "balance": 0.833592, "dry_up": 1.409282, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043638, "annualized_volatility": 0.224355, "from_high_reference": -0.072835, "from_low_reference": 0.369873 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.804833, "fair_value_reference": 39.775449, "structural_low": 45.209999, "invalidation": "A 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038319, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020942, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.101586, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.064871, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.099886, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", 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"modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.641923, "energy": 59.000515, "activity_lines": [ 56.834666, 56.38509, 54.38188, 52.790677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 53.119999, "volume": 108573, "typical_volume": 87538.6, "trend": 50.940333, "fair_value": 39.364776, "relative_strength": -1.265181, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.18361, "energy": 35.711755, "activity_lines": [ 55.559332, 55.877636, 54.447785, 52.951193 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 53.959999, "volume": 88724, "typical_volume": 81046.55, "trend": 51.274667, "fair_value": 39.495577, "relative_strength": 0.319577, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.075085, "energy": 22.941346, "activity_lines": [ 54.769999, 55.557999, 54.581499, 53.14601 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 53.549999, "volume": 163032, "typical_volume": 83774.65, "trend": 51.5435, "fair_value": 39.629551, "relative_strength": -1.233384, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.554509, "energy": 23.852261, "activity_lines": [ 54.157332, 55.160181, 54.645785, 53.292806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 54.610001, "volume": 108538, "typical_volume": 83174.8, "trend": 51.804833, "fair_value": 39.775449, "relative_strength": -2.281618, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.577227, "energy": 24.065897, "activity_lines": [ 54.11, 54.972727, 54.78238, 53.490645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }