{ "ticker": { "uuid": "84adb0bd-0760-42a0-90b0-ece2dc303884", "symbol": "603380", "name": "Suzhou Etron Technologies Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.785, "architecture_energy": 44.059, "architecture_maturity": 22.328, "architecture_confidence": 71.46, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.61, "rotation_up": 10.97, "upward_expansion": 6.2, "deceleration": 52.94, "rotation_down": 67.61, "downward_expansion": 74.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.935333, 36.014616, 36.869883, 36.872545 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 33.290001, "trend_reference": 37.248994, "distance_from_trend": -0.106285, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.326076, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.21825, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.777383, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.152063, "excess_performance": -0.108859, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.106285, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000989, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.21825, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.265063, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.137774, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130422, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.152063, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.485621, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14563622, "relative_activity": 0.962929, "balance": 0.485621, "dry_up": 1.380879, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.166965, "annualized_volatility": 0.594915, "from_high_reference": -0.408703, "from_low_reference": 0.155903 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.248994, "fair_value_reference": 27.326076, "structural_low": 29.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.025233, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": -0.020397, "regime_survival": 0.578947, "best_return": 0.244713, "worst_return": -0.142457, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.109042, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.093706, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.741168, "worst_return": -0.341503, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.14919, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.097368, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.527937, "worst_return": -0.239094, 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 41.310001, "volume": 41504050, "typical_volume": 12314481.1, "trend": 37.863327, "fair_value": 27.067535, "relative_strength": 5.962665, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.242629, "energy": 65.561463, "activity_lines": [ 42.278, 40.439599, 38.607689, 38.186135 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 34.849998, "volume": 31119250, "typical_volume": 13530371.6, "trend": 37.82766, "fair_value": 27.154477, "relative_strength": -5.424416, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.805607, "energy": 33.96306, "activity_lines": [ 40.119333, 39.596796, 38.352213, 37.991727 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.75, "volume": 21188923, "typical_volume": 14198052.3, "trend": 37.73366, "fair_value": 27.219935, "relative_strength": -12.362913, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.539841, "energy": 13.923837, "activity_lines": [ 37.285333, 38.439469, 37.91731, 37.664136 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.58, "volume": 16667500, "typical_volume": 14715992.3, "trend": 37.405994, "fair_value": 27.263926, "relative_strength": -21.19802, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.198856, "energy": 41.924945, "activity_lines": [ 33.946666, 36.773364, 37.200929, 37.138093 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.290001, "volume": 14563622, "typical_volume": 15124298.4, "trend": 37.248994, "fair_value": 27.326076, "relative_strength": -13.777383, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.784569, "energy": 44.058893, "activity_lines": [ 32.935333, 36.014616, 36.869883, 36.872545 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }