{ "ticker": { "uuid": "84b5414e-36dc-4025-89e5-741548246a34", "symbol": "AW1H", "name": "UBS MSCI EMU Universal UCITS ETF EUR acc", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.497, "architecture_energy": 67.0, "architecture_maturity": 55.679, "architecture_confidence": 81.144, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.08, "rotation_up": 55.52, "upward_expansion": 82.61, "deceleration": 65.63, "rotation_down": 27.27, "downward_expansion": 11.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.47, 27.330909, 26.757619, 26.211333 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 28.09, "trend_reference": 25.655333, "distance_from_trend": 0.094899, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.255224, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.321557, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.092856, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.116677, "excess_performance": 0.052037, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.094899, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042921, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.321557, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080093, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.050929, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013506, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.116677, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.669281, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2539, "relative_activity": 1.166123, "balance": 1.669281, "dry_up": 1.028223, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021059, "annualized_volatility": 0.169315, "from_high_reference": -0.002486, "from_low_reference": 0.271328 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.655333, "fair_value_reference": 21.255224, "structural_low": 22.530001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.005045, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.000678, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.056446, "worst_return": -0.07289, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.017857, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": 0.006186, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.088403, "worst_return": -0.041218, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.04666, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.000692, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.104232, "worst_return": -0.013172, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.162403, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.001554, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.18293, "worst_return": 0.104177, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-01-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011175, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.106972, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037331, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01557, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", 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[ 26.872333, 26.421363, 25.700762, 25.409849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 27.700001, "volume": 6010, "typical_volume": 2144.15, "trend": 25.172167, "fair_value": 20.936359, "relative_strength": 7.330599, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.369095, "energy": 92.339136, "activity_lines": [ 27.208333, 26.725818, 25.932547, 25.580989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 27.195, "volume": 4614, "typical_volume": 2207.45, "trend": 25.279667, "fair_value": 20.999019, "relative_strength": 8.026918, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.365342, "energy": 85.842984, "activity_lines": [ 27.277333, 26.889545, 26.103571, 25.711495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.905001, "volume": 2257, "typical_volume": 2278.35, "trend": 25.367167, "fair_value": 21.059769, "relative_strength": 7.551753, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.206305, "energy": 78.978162, "activity_lines": [ 27.184667, 26.961364, 26.239333, 25.816355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.065001, "volume": 219, "typical_volume": 2016.7, "trend": 25.461667, "fair_value": 21.119622, "relative_strength": 6.726917, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.871522, "energy": 59.272624, "activity_lines": [ 27.132001, 27.034727, 26.384881, 25.925893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.35, "volume": 3940, "typical_volume": 2080.3, "trend": 25.554, "fair_value": 21.184647, "relative_strength": 5.345236, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.251311, "energy": 55.839727, "activity_lines": [ 27.187667, 27.126818, 26.544143, 26.04772 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.09, "volume": 2539, "typical_volume": 2177.3, "trend": 25.655333, "fair_value": 21.255224, "relative_strength": 5.092856, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.497356, "energy": 66.999934, "activity_lines": [ 27.47, 27.330909, 26.757619, 26.211333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }