{ "ticker": { "uuid": "84c52cd0-9331-45bb-b8af-cdf3aa2766b5", "symbol": "UFO", "name": "Alien Metals Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.707, "architecture_energy": 75.063, "architecture_maturity": 34.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.899, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.69, "rotation_up": 10.7, "upward_expansion": 17.41, "deceleration": 37.35, "rotation_down": 76.99, "downward_expansion": 95.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.000807, 0.000907, 0.00105, 0.001138 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.0008, "trend_reference": 0.001262, "distance_from_trend": -0.366086, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.001392, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.425176, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -47.779918, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.5, "excess_performance": -0.551235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.366086, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063335, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.425176, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.296893, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.477799, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.435108, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.5, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.263246, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 257180932, "relative_activity": 1.193001, "balance": 0.263246, "dry_up": 0.69049, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.276923, "annualized_volatility": 0.606194, "from_high_reference": -0.733333, "from_low_reference": 0.142857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.001262, "fair_value_reference": 0.001392, "structural_low": 0.0007, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.036697, "positive_rate": 0.414634, "directional_follow_through": 0.512195, "median_excess_return": -0.027928, "regime_survival": 0.804878, "best_return": 0.589744, "worst_return": -0.470423, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.115385, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.13709, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.323529, "worst_return": -0.5375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.244623, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.250851, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.735294, "worst_return": -0.421053, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.80697, "energy": 55.152823, "activity_lines": [ 0.00106, 0.001127, 0.001199, 0.001265 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.00085, "volume": 104510324, "typical_volume": 246108574.0, "trend": 0.001312, "fair_value": 0.00143, "relative_strength": -44.553579, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.02708, "energy": 66.869692, "activity_lines": [ 0.000975, 0.001065, 0.001161, 0.001235 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.00083, "volume": 100895842, "typical_volume": 231420744.7, "trend": 0.001297, "fair_value": 0.001412, "relative_strength": -46.075279, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.386075, "energy": 73.725837, "activity_lines": [ 0.000907, 0.001009, 0.001124, 0.001204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.00075, "volume": 132821567, "typical_volume": 220189224.45, "trend": 0.001277, "fair_value": 0.001399, "relative_strength": -51.46637, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.084184, "energy": 78.600653, "activity_lines": [ 0.000837, 0.000949, 0.001083, 0.001169 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0008, "volume": 257180932, "typical_volume": 215574698.9, "trend": 0.001262, "fair_value": 0.001392, "relative_strength": -47.779918, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.7067, "energy": 75.063426, "activity_lines": [ 0.000807, 0.000907, 0.00105, 0.001138 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }