{ "ticker": { "uuid": "84d29be4-12cf-4b90-8dbb-e735f63af8a8", "symbol": "NRGU", "name": "BetaPro S&P/TSX Capped Energy 2x Daily Bull ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.441, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.595, "architecture_energy": 33.427, "architecture_maturity": 29.022, "architecture_confidence": 66.987, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.41, "rotation_up": 62.64, "upward_expansion": 67.63, "deceleration": 61.39, "rotation_down": 12.43, "downward_expansion": 13.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 60.575334, 57.776, 58.234571, 57.578946 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 57.060001, "trend_reference": 54.757666, "distance_from_trend": 0.042046, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.136474, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.72197, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 15.644357, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.344486, "excess_performance": 0.224065, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.042046, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.170044, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.72197, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.250785, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.156444, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.317957, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.344486, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.386968, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 324500, "relative_activity": 1.215834, "balance": 1.386968, "dry_up": 1.290114, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109075, "annualized_volatility": 0.612257, "from_high_reference": -0.198708, "from_low_reference": 1.27512 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 54.757666, "fair_value_reference": 33.136474, "structural_low": 41.779999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.100381, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.058741, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.538355, "worst_return": -0.117288, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.564471, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.521379, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.902033, "worst_return": -0.115896, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.598234, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.462968, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.726285, "worst_return": -0.067983, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004531, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.039032, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013683, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071234, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.114265, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.066529, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"fair_value": 32.187692, "relative_strength": 17.87667, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.567394, "energy": 24.582994, "activity_lines": [ 51.809333, 54.936909, 57.142571, 55.320516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 58.139999, "volume": 319100, "typical_volume": 276635.0, "trend": 51.796333, "fair_value": 32.419103, "relative_strength": 25.766097, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.240414, "energy": 19.947233, "activity_lines": [ 53.644666, 55.047818, 57.208571, 55.789053 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 64.150002, "volume": 338600, "typical_volume": 257410.0, "trend": 52.888, "fair_value": 32.676987, "relative_strength": 36.658885, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.974096, "energy": 23.042062, "activity_lines": [ 57.572, 56.272364, 57.801285, 56.586064 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 65.150002, "volume": 395100, "typical_volume": 262855.0, "trend": 53.932333, "fair_value": 32.937115, "relative_strength": 37.606409, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.498977, "energy": 39.270972, "activity_lines": [ 60.965334, 57.742, 58.425428, 57.377161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 57.060001, "volume": 324500, "typical_volume": 266895.0, "trend": 54.757666, "fair_value": 33.136474, "relative_strength": 15.644357, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.595219, "energy": 33.427441, "activity_lines": [ 60.575334, 57.776, 58.234571, 57.578946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }