{ "ticker": { "uuid": "84d5af6d-9409-492c-94cd-33e0a14d493a", "symbol": "WACOAL", "name": "Thai Wacoal Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 65.219, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.524, "architecture_energy": 22.31, "architecture_maturity": 70.277, "architecture_confidence": 74.044, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.76, "rotation_up": 28.32, "upward_expansion": 15.37, "deceleration": 46.94, "rotation_down": 24.24, "downward_expansion": 60.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.866667, 15.756364, 15.95202, 16.093159 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 15.8, "trend_reference": 16.242902, "distance_from_trend": -0.027267, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.955825, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.311722, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.214556, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.061594, "excess_performance": -0.253919, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.027267, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023156, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.311722, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003446, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.192146, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002275, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.061594, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.587131, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3100, "relative_activity": 0.30303, "balance": 3.587131, "dry_up": 3.555718, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023856, "annualized_volatility": 0.133422, "from_high_reference": -0.330809, "from_low_reference": 0.03268 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.242902, "fair_value_reference": 22.955825, "structural_low": 15.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 46, "median_return": -0.010579, "positive_rate": 0.391304, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": -0.010745, "regime_survival": 0.891304, "best_return": 0.080292, "worst_return": -0.148594, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.035751, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.6875, "median_excess_return": -0.05495, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.03012, "worst_return": -0.206897, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.047321, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.030977, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": -0.022979, "worst_return": -0.218968, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.8, "volume": 3900, "typical_volume": 4475.0, "trend": 16.371177, "fair_value": 23.348704, "relative_strength": -22.411528, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.099008, "energy": 84.072834, "activity_lines": [ 15.533333, 15.778182, 16.083109, 16.205777 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.9, "volume": 59800, "typical_volume": 6355.0, "trend": 16.323814, "fair_value": 23.248057, "relative_strength": -22.083452, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.125065, "energy": 68.529111, "activity_lines": [ 15.666667, 15.756364, 16.049361, 16.175378 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.8, "volume": 14400, "typical_volume": 6965.0, "trend": 16.289245, "fair_value": 23.148247, "relative_strength": -22.122714, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.365916, "energy": 39.035975, "activity_lines": [ 15.746667, 15.729091, 16.00917, 16.141584 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.0, "volume": 68200, "typical_volume": 10345.0, "trend": 16.261343, "fair_value": 23.04972, "relative_strength": -19.378045, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.061148, "energy": 23.749751, "activity_lines": [ 15.86, 15.756364, 15.989738, 16.122923 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.8, "volume": 3100, "typical_volume": 10230.0, "trend": 16.242902, "fair_value": 22.955825, "relative_strength": -19.214556, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.523531, "energy": 22.310279, "activity_lines": [ 15.866667, 15.756364, 15.95202, 16.093159 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }