{ "ticker": { "uuid": "84d6374c-d28b-4a8c-a672-658862f5e943", "symbol": "PCGG", "name": "LITMAN GREGORY FDS TR POLEN CAPITAL GLOBAL GROWTH ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 52.255, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.443, "architecture_energy": 53.186, "architecture_maturity": 28.393, "architecture_confidence": 78.554, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.45, "rotation_up": 58.68, "upward_expansion": 83.84, "deceleration": 47.22, "rotation_down": 18.48, "downward_expansion": 12.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.1351, 11.045495, 10.989479, 10.903507 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.5, "trend_reference": 10.901363, "distance_from_trend": 0.054914, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.23562, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.023531, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.536694, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.050228, "excess_performance": -0.075397, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.054914, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028271, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.023531, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049961, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.105367, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061198, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.050228, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.253397, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20296, "relative_activity": 0.969908, "balance": 3.253397, "dry_up": 0.567986, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029532, "annualized_volatility": 0.19269, "from_high_reference": -0.090909, "from_low_reference": 0.184956 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.901363, "fair_value_reference": 11.23562, "structural_low": 9.705, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.008974, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.008602, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.007428, "worst_return": -0.12862, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.039845, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.070361, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.024702, "worst_return": -0.104393, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.027407, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.145859, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.035349, "worst_return": -0.090163, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.082027, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.263186, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.082027, "worst_return": -0.082027, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030664, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.08163, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.130915, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002525, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.016831, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024458, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004996, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015572, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.055193, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.048075, "active": true } ], 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"volume": 6345, "typical_volume": 24777.2, "trend": 10.92103, "fair_value": 11.233892, "relative_strength": -11.07471, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.0467, "energy": 16.633051, "activity_lines": [ 10.96164, 10.947862, 10.922188, 10.866154 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.5, "volume": 20296, "typical_volume": 20925.7, "trend": 10.901363, "fair_value": 11.23562, "relative_strength": -10.536694, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.443294, "energy": 53.186245, "activity_lines": [ 11.1351, 11.045495, 10.989479, 10.903507 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }