{ "ticker": { "uuid": "84d698e3-f2fe-4d87-aebe-45d55b43b6d6", "symbol": "RAIL", "name": "Freightcar America Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.635, "architecture_energy": 41.605, "architecture_maturity": 38.747, "architecture_confidence": 86.068, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.24, "rotation_up": 13.45, "upward_expansion": 5.44, "deceleration": 46.31, "rotation_down": 60.6, "downward_expansion": 78.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.987333, 8.297455, 8.306524, 8.67357 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.94, "trend_reference": 9.445, "distance_from_trend": -0.159344, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.230224, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.098168, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.068737, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.361736, "excess_performance": -0.54919, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.159344, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032473, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.098168, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077377, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.260687, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045923, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.361736, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.75874, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1287202, "relative_activity": 1.295349, "balance": 0.75874, "dry_up": 0.961812, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128027, "annualized_volatility": 0.760286, "from_high_reference": -0.467114, "from_low_reference": 0.09216 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.445, "fair_value_reference": 7.230224, "structural_low": 7.31, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.019603, "positive_rate": 0.535714, "directional_follow_through": 0.464286, "median_excess_return": 0.001792, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.579487, "worst_return": -0.289641, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.007491, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.107381, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.498113, "worst_return": -0.14472, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.325472, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.208663, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.486891, "worst_return": -0.192, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.136971, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.195599, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.269316, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008234, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.287435, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.698679, "energy": 25.100981, "activity_lines": [ 8.88, 8.582, 8.529476, 9.119677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.52, "volume": 892467, "typical_volume": 1072874.55, "trend": 9.749667, "fair_value": 7.130673, "relative_strength": -28.9333, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.621126, "energy": 24.963509, "activity_lines": [ 8.412667, 8.429818, 8.398857, 8.972516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.4, "volume": 931130, "typical_volume": 1085414.8, "trend": 9.646333, "fair_value": 7.165929, "relative_strength": -18.501979, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.264496, "energy": 29.836103, "activity_lines": [ 8.279333, 8.445818, 8.382095, 8.885441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.97, "volume": 712251, "typical_volume": 987001.1, "trend": 9.547667, "fair_value": 7.198045, "relative_strength": -22.485529, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.965099, "energy": 40.593104, "activity_lines": [ 8.064, 8.375273, 8.345, 8.77729 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.94, "volume": 1287202, "typical_volume": 993710.25, "trend": 9.445, "fair_value": 7.230224, "relative_strength": -26.068737, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.635225, "energy": 41.605108, "activity_lines": [ 7.987333, 8.297455, 8.306524, 8.67357 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }