{ "ticker": { "uuid": "84e40520-a6d0-4da2-9e69-df649510eac7", "symbol": "BLUSD", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy - ECPI Global ESG Blue Economy", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 56.433, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.091, "architecture_energy": 88.226, "architecture_maturity": 10.503, "architecture_confidence": 72.87, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.27, "rotation_up": 78.56, "upward_expansion": 95.32, "deceleration": 44.67, "rotation_down": 8.02, "downward_expansion": 21.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.2117, 14.083636, 13.992067, 13.921027 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.2005, "trend_reference": 13.769693, "distance_from_trend": 0.031287, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.864499, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.19689, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.019507, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.077878, "excess_performance": 0.024566, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031287, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033098, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.19689, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024389, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.010195, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100192, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.077878, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.833333, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.833333, "dry_up": 0.193949, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006694, "annualized_volatility": 0.191521, "from_high_reference": -0.009217, "from_low_reference": 0.232062 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.769693, "fair_value_reference": 11.864499, "structural_low": 12.9381, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.005229, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.078735, "worst_return": -0.047288, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.024763, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.001625, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.071449, "worst_return": -0.054353, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.048839, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 3e-06, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.128614, "worst_return": -0.030937, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"relative_strength": 5.717024, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.035791, "energy": 95.671831, "activity_lines": [ 14.12936, 13.976144, 13.937218, 13.857803 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.2005, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 515.6, "trend": 13.735493, "fair_value": 11.839327, "relative_strength": 3.630629, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.895266, "energy": 89.743416, "activity_lines": [ 14.18612, 14.034142, 13.964616, 13.891027 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.2005, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 515.6, "trend": 13.769693, "fair_value": 11.864499, "relative_strength": 1.019507, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.091322, "energy": 88.225554, "activity_lines": [ 14.2117, 14.083636, 13.992067, 13.921027 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }