{ "ticker": { "uuid": "84ebf7be-01a1-47f2-a8c8-74ee61cb8ec0", "symbol": "STC", "name": "Sangoma Technologies Corporation", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -4.619, "architecture_energy": 15.246, "architecture_maturity": 14.264, "architecture_confidence": 66.511, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.87, "rotation_up": 39.51, "upward_expansion": 35.3, "deceleration": 37.91, "rotation_down": 16.77, "downward_expansion": 41.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.628667, 5.548727, 5.440476, 5.528043 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.56, "trend_reference": 5.726, "distance_from_trend": -0.028991, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.686346, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.168455, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.6957, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.128527, "excess_performance": -0.248948, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028991, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090293, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.168455, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031915, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.236957, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050983, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.128527, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.169222, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34600, "relative_activity": 0.196731, "balance": 1.169222, "dry_up": 0.330917, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065855, "annualized_volatility": 0.367626, "from_high_reference": -0.363116, "from_low_reference": 0.180467 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.726, "fair_value_reference": 6.686346, "structural_low": 4.71, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.017743, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.051042, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.211268, "worst_return": -0.170188, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.095055, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.146531, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.005102, "worst_return": -0.16, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.225009, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.297625, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.063776, "worst_return": -0.324, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.362245, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.620175, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.311871, "worst_return": -0.704871, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.169427, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.206202, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.215712, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01467, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.236111, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.114796, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.049637, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.097063, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008075, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056115, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.074667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.136842, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.049573, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 5.12, "volume": 50000, "typical_volume": 154315.0, "trend": 5.157333, "fair_value": 15.740833, "relative_strength": -15.337016, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", 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"volume": 39600, "typical_volume": 179105.0, "trend": 5.762333, "fair_value": 6.687949, "relative_strength": -23.751714, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.236459, "energy": 20.624682, "activity_lines": [ 5.664, 5.515455, 5.430048, 5.541097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.56, "volume": 34600, "typical_volume": 175875.0, "trend": 5.726, "fair_value": 6.686346, "relative_strength": -23.6957, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.619008, "energy": 15.246129, "activity_lines": [ 5.628667, 5.548727, 5.440476, 5.528043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }