{ "ticker": { "uuid": "84f284de-77f4-4bc0-aaec-5cce5f0626af", "symbol": "HHL", "name": "Harvest Healthcare Leaders Income ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 56.498, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 52.726, "architecture_energy": 57.823, "architecture_maturity": 9.677, "architecture_confidence": 60.649, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.06, "rotation_up": 73.98, "upward_expansion": 62.5, "deceleration": 20.74, "rotation_down": 17.74, "downward_expansion": 18.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.237137, 7.153194, 7.02506, 7.015571 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 7.39, "trend_reference": 7.065278, "distance_from_trend": 0.04596, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.842382, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.080033, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.125073, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.000663, "excess_performance": -0.119759, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.04596, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011892, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.080033, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.099616, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.071251, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079927, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.000663, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.631589, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1346600, "relative_activity": 0.826099, "balance": 1.631589, "dry_up": 1.132145, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027837, "annualized_volatility": 0.137496, "from_high_reference": -0.034369, "from_low_reference": 0.155759 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.065278, "fair_value_reference": 6.842382, "structural_low": 6.557314, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.021863, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.018477, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.051107, "worst_return": 0.008256, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.086162, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.009546, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.107604, "worst_return": 0.000312, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.039306, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.014022, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.119308, "worst_return": 0.03255, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.068888, 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"2026-07-17", "close": 7.091393, "volume": 2123000, "typical_volume": 1722370.0, "trend": 7.086361, "fair_value": 6.822615, "relative_strength": -8.843117, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.154547, "energy": 23.736843, "activity_lines": [ 7.083055, 7.004041, 6.929939, 6.981936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.140984, "volume": 1600300, "typical_volume": 1686175.0, "trend": 7.077124, "fair_value": 6.828294, "relative_strength": -8.166303, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.617747, "energy": 41.428241, "activity_lines": [ 7.115191, 7.041896, 6.951483, 6.98546 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.225, "volume": 2312000, "typical_volume": 1693315.0, "trend": 7.071168, "fair_value": 6.835254, "relative_strength": -6.450619, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.270518, "energy": 45.137434, "activity_lines": [ 7.15312, 7.086023, 6.981031, 6.995001 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.39, "volume": 1346600, "typical_volume": 1630070.0, "trend": 7.065278, "fair_value": 6.842382, "relative_strength": -7.125073, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 52.726021, "energy": 57.82302, "activity_lines": [ 7.237137, 7.153194, 7.02506, 7.015571 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }