{ "ticker": { "uuid": "84f92aff-1d6b-4da5-92c9-bf6780e681b9", "symbol": "002462", "name": "Cachet Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.447, "architecture_energy": 51.793, "architecture_maturity": 82.891, "architecture_confidence": 79.402, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.04, "rotation_up": 27.9, "upward_expansion": 13.71, "deceleration": 60.98, "rotation_down": 46.83, "downward_expansion": 75.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.672667, 11.709636, 12.413095, 13.031505 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.89, "trend_reference": 13.928667, "distance_from_trend": -0.146365, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.10128, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.092455, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.253323, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.275, "excess_performance": -0.2824, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.146365, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068275, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.092455, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.141094, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.192533, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02846, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.275, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.001615, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15129284, "relative_activity": 0.788117, "balance": 1.001615, "dry_up": 0.961487, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067672, "annualized_volatility": 0.270979, "from_high_reference": -0.39614, "from_low_reference": 0.095853 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.928667, "fair_value_reference": 13.10128, "structural_low": 10.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.01013, "positive_rate": 0.608696, "directional_follow_through": 0.391304, "median_excess_return": 0.03433, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.191768, "worst_return": -0.170965, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.041463, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.014713, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.258278, "worst_return": -0.141192, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.087943, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.033789, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.209082, "worst_return": -0.109385, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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-22.4702, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.176547, "energy": 81.395912, "activity_lines": [ 11.35, 11.860364, 12.668, 13.314108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.86, "volume": 14165070, "typical_volume": 19414868.3, "trend": 14.011, "fair_value": 13.110507, "relative_strength": -15.896753, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.500812, "energy": 61.288946, "activity_lines": [ 11.533333, 11.765636, 12.530762, 13.168344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.89, "volume": 15129284, "typical_volume": 19196748.15, "trend": 13.928667, "fair_value": 13.10128, "relative_strength": -19.253323, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.44708, "energy": 51.793024, "activity_lines": [ 11.672667, 11.709636, 12.413095, 13.031505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }