{ "ticker": { "uuid": "84f9384f-bc14-40e9-9b9f-cd060588fa68", "symbol": "TKNO", "name": "Alpha Teknova Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.495, "architecture_energy": 47.638, "architecture_maturity": 59.152, "architecture_confidence": 64.646, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.51, "rotation_up": 46.77, "upward_expansion": 75.04, "deceleration": 72.82, "rotation_down": 25.19, "downward_expansion": 6.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.560667, 5.456182, 4.938095, 4.407161 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.46, "trend_reference": 3.774, "distance_from_trend": 0.711712, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.30375, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.501017, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 35.645734, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.871111, "excess_performance": 1.683657, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.711712, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079314, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.501017, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.57831, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.356457, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.614557, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.871111, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.933969, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 949931, "relative_activity": 1.300929, "balance": 1.933969, "dry_up": 0.873233, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.152703, "annualized_volatility": 1.003318, "from_high_reference": -0.032934, "from_low_reference": 2.382199 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.774, "fair_value_reference": 4.30375, "structural_low": 1.91, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.010268, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.037713, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.441614, "worst_return": -0.420578, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.129853, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.135326, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.512146, "worst_return": -0.613718, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.296752, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.425249, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.315789, "worst_return": -0.528881, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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4.268878, "relative_strength": 10.641664, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.511063, "energy": 45.656221, "activity_lines": [ 5.329333, 5.232, 4.635286, 4.142645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.0, "volume": 405882, "typical_volume": 717011.85, "trend": 3.698333, "fair_value": 4.280673, "relative_strength": 10.836176, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.252267, "energy": 32.945334, "activity_lines": [ 5.176667, 5.221455, 4.722429, 4.228989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.46, "volume": 949931, "typical_volume": 730194.5, "trend": 3.774, "fair_value": 4.30375, "relative_strength": 35.645734, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.495285, "energy": 47.637644, "activity_lines": [ 5.560667, 5.456182, 4.938095, 4.407161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }