{ "ticker": { "uuid": "84facf57-ad54-4c12-98fe-e7978fcf5210", "symbol": "GIB", "name": "Gibb River Diamonds Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -76.334, "architecture_energy": 61.138, "architecture_maturity": 88.742, "architecture_confidence": 94.993, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.92, "rotation_up": 26.22, "upward_expansion": 9.74, "deceleration": 60.13, "rotation_down": 57.32, "downward_expansion": 83.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.032467, 0.033236, 0.036805, 0.040295 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.03, "trend_reference": 0.0451, "distance_from_trend": -0.334812, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.040397, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.257379, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -43.744073, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.387755, "excess_performance": -0.451461, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.334812, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16119, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.257379, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.417964, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.437441, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.367915, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.387755, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.40695, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 135685, "relative_activity": 0.861077, "balance": 0.40695, "dry_up": 1.201473, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.146154, "annualized_volatility": 0.67901, "from_high_reference": -0.61039, "from_low_reference": 0.034483 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0451, "fair_value_reference": 0.040397, "structural_low": 0.029, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.033898, "positive_rate": 0.37931, "directional_follow_through": 0.586207, "median_excess_return": -0.032174, "regime_survival": 0.793103, "best_return": 0.791667, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.051975, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.10829, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.611111, "worst_return": -0.346939, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.033333, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.042794, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.705882, "worst_return": -0.263158, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"trend": 0.047367, "fair_value": 0.040353, "relative_strength": -39.347709, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.408934, "energy": 67.359528, "activity_lines": [ 0.033, 0.034309, 0.038657, 0.042148 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.035, "volume": 28806, "typical_volume": 196876.05, "trend": 0.046367, "fair_value": 0.040391, "relative_strength": -32.742616, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.872548, "energy": 56.215798, "activity_lines": [ 0.033667, 0.0342, 0.037914, 0.041351 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.03, "volume": 135685, "typical_volume": 157576.0, "trend": 0.0451, "fair_value": 0.040397, "relative_strength": -43.744073, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.333654, "energy": 61.138264, "activity_lines": [ 0.032467, 0.033236, 0.036805, 0.040295 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }