{ "ticker": { "uuid": "84fcc7a9-3ac1-4327-98b8-2bd2b1a62f5d", "symbol": "REAL", "name": "TheRealReal Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 51.712, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 34.372, "architecture_energy": 31.294, "architecture_maturity": 21.275, "architecture_confidence": 45.695, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.71, "rotation_up": 51.02, "upward_expansion": 48.93, "deceleration": 34.36, "rotation_down": 22.01, "downward_expansion": 11.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.751333, 11.568, 11.060286, 10.929269 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.3, "trend_reference": 11.274667, "distance_from_trend": 0.090941, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.625481, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.856469, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.977713, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.060351, "excess_performance": -0.247805, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.090941, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087601, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.856469, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.114932, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.069777, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081394, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.060351, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.188474, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27560063, "relative_activity": 1.681768, "balance": 1.188474, "dry_up": 1.043331, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.113821, "annualized_volatility": 0.71395, "from_high_reference": -0.292778, "from_low_reference": 0.909938 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.274667, "fair_value_reference": 6.625481, "structural_low": 8.05, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.013514, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.053155, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 1.203008, "worst_return": -0.226994, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.717187, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.654717, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 2.121311, "worst_return": -0.447115, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.8144, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.773857, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.045312, "worst_return": 0.100962, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.921875, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.658809, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 4.213115, "worst_return": -0.120192, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.308197, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.240506, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.240683, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.130031, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.177694, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.111831, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005758, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.207812, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.13929, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.386653, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012227, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.046025, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.28483, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011513, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.48, "volume": 15506651, "typical_volume": 18857377.5, "trend": 1.6745, "fair_value": 9.676538, "relative_strength": 31.83759, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": 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0.014251, "energy": 11.842201, "activity_lines": [ 11.254667, 10.630182, 10.479286, 11.034075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 11.58, "volume": 11128606, "typical_volume": 17092403.8, "trend": 11.9745, "fair_value": 6.339071, "relative_strength": -8.175567, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.23415, "energy": 20.426706, "activity_lines": [ 11.554667, 10.808909, 10.583286, 11.003462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.6, "volume": 13011220, "typical_volume": 17178513.2, "trend": 11.849833, "fair_value": 6.391699, "relative_strength": -17.891018, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.637159, "energy": 18.619726, "activity_lines": [ 11.398667, 10.822182, 10.593333, 10.914785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.21, "volume": 15462492, "typical_volume": 16355365.0, "trend": 11.706, "fair_value": 6.44625, "relative_strength": -9.953029, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.238244, "energy": 13.257333, "activity_lines": [ 11.330667, 10.967636, 10.663905, 10.873505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.13, "volume": 13225006, "typical_volume": 16100931.6, "trend": 11.536667, "fair_value": 6.500545, "relative_strength": -9.732736, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.119394, "energy": 7.760345, "activity_lines": [ 11.174, 11.081273, 10.731857, 10.836344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.09, "volume": 12143002, "typical_volume": 15783764.35, "trend": 11.413, "fair_value": 6.563365, "relative_strength": -3.316184, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.993189, "energy": 16.489469, "activity_lines": [ 11.425333, 11.331818, 10.892095, 10.872043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.3, "volume": 27560063, "typical_volume": 16387551.55, "trend": 11.274667, "fair_value": 6.625481, "relative_strength": -6.977713, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.372123, "energy": 31.294134, "activity_lines": [ 11.751333, 11.568, 11.060286, 10.929269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }