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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 53.949, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.333, "architecture_energy": 65.791, "architecture_maturity": 24.759, "architecture_confidence": 80.718, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.56, "rotation_up": 9.94, "upward_expansion": 14.68, "deceleration": 37.43, "rotation_down": 68.97, "downward_expansion": 88.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.056433, 21.134378, 21.174663, 21.222713 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 21.0907, "trend_reference": 21.292766, "distance_from_trend": -0.00949, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.415663, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.033065, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.804763, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.016615, "excess_performance": -0.14224, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00949, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002716, "read": "Falling" 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20.38443, "relative_strength": -8.811337, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.174263, "energy": 16.660217, "activity_lines": [ 21.233444, 21.230259, 21.237639, 21.280342 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.995, "volume": 1247, "typical_volume": 67316.4, "trend": 21.315968, "fair_value": 20.393777, "relative_strength": -8.796116, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.833229, "energy": 50.062135, "activity_lines": [ 21.143688, 21.1939, 21.21236, 21.258769 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.97, "volume": 9712, "typical_volume": 64793.95, "trend": 21.303599, "fair_value": 20.404079, "relative_strength": -9.5603, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.13377, "energy": 69.555011, "activity_lines": [ 21.06664, 21.152283, 21.186986, 21.236449 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.0907, "volume": 79818, "typical_volume": 68326.1, "trend": 21.292766, "fair_value": 20.415663, "relative_strength": -11.804763, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.332778, "energy": 65.790983, "activity_lines": [ 21.056433, 21.134378, 21.174663, 21.222713 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }