{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8500d20e-0b7f-4f0c-ab10-b002414931cf", "symbol": "AVCN", "name": "Avicanna Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.282, "architecture_energy": 18.077, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 74.77, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.33, "rotation_up": 27.55, "upward_expansion": 18.31, "deceleration": 46.64, "rotation_down": 26.46, "downward_expansion": 56.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.13, 0.127, 0.129, 0.136817 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.135, "trend_reference": 0.151333, "distance_from_trend": -0.10793, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.295737, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.543514, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -39.431994, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.25, "excess_performance": -0.370421, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.10793, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.194321, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.543514, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022841, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.39432, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092172, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.25, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.766215, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 146500, "relative_activity": 0.281853, "balance": 0.766215, "dry_up": 0.3818, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119658, "annualized_volatility": 0.388019, "from_high_reference": -0.54698, "from_low_reference": 0.421053 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.151333, "fair_value_reference": 0.295737, "structural_low": 0.095, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.041667, "positive_rate": 0.342857, "directional_follow_through": 0.628571, "median_excess_return": -0.061037, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.615385, "worst_return": -0.432432, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.087291, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.152975, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.565217, "worst_return": -0.52, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.105263, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.206588, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.409836, "worst_return": -0.612903, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.30322, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.455556, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": -0.098361, "worst_return": -0.612903, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.291667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.865385, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.302326, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.135, "volume": 251300, "typical_volume": 522885.0, "trend": 0.157667, "fair_value": 0.297468, "relative_strength": -40.143254, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.976664, "energy": 31.82636, "activity_lines": [ 0.126333, 0.124909, 0.13019, 0.140183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.125, "volume": 110200, "typical_volume": 517475.0, "trend": 0.1545, "fair_value": 0.296538, "relative_strength": -43.184561, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.299064, "energy": 26.874596, "activity_lines": [ 0.126667, 0.125, 0.129, 0.138075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.135, "volume": 146500, "typical_volume": 519775.0, "trend": 0.151333, "fair_value": 0.295737, "relative_strength": -39.431994, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.281899, "energy": 18.076838, "activity_lines": [ 0.13, 0.127, 0.129, 0.136817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }