{ "ticker": { "uuid": "850497cf-2db3-4412-872f-7d0c94f93629", "symbol": "RTX", "name": "RTX Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 59.113, "architecture_energy": 79.487, "architecture_maturity": 20.07, "architecture_confidence": 77.505, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.83, "rotation_up": 79.35, "upward_expansion": 67.46, "deceleration": 20.87, "rotation_down": 16.18, "downward_expansion": 25.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 213.156667, 204.596545, 194.685931, 193.648835 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 223.03, "trend_reference": 193.792074, "distance_from_trend": 0.150873, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 132.096439, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.688388, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.79272, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.131043, "excess_performance": 0.005418, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.150873, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036118, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.688388, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.267436, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.087927, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.170609, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.131043, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.560971, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25427018, "relative_activity": 1.003186, "balance": 3.560971, "dry_up": 1.053165, "accumulation_observations": 7, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048123, "annualized_volatility": 0.280327, "from_high_reference": -0.011611, "from_low_reference": 0.497837 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 193.792074, "fair_value_reference": 132.096439, "structural_low": 170.078586, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.039834, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.027976, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.048419, "worst_return": 0.03125, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.115819, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.061733, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.167145, "worst_return": 0.064492, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.103951, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.020204, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.188041, "worst_return": 0.01986, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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195.93, "volume": 21899437, "typical_volume": 26749968.25, "trend": 190.221462, "fair_value": 128.818995, "relative_strength": -1.055771, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.428479, "energy": 29.427748, "activity_lines": [ 193.023333, 187.778012, 186.13143, 188.521853 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 193.51, "volume": 19330508, "typical_volume": 25898953.8, "trend": 190.649697, "fair_value": 129.479579, "relative_strength": -0.890983, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.700333, "energy": 29.539788, "activity_lines": [ 194.04, 189.583399, 186.584686, 188.734017 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 212.79, "volume": 29147574, "typical_volume": 25155688.4, "trend": 191.616044, "fair_value": 130.318196, "relative_strength": 9.283236, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 49.304405, "energy": 66.157349, "activity_lines": [ 200.818, 194.564364, 188.91355, 190.162423 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 215.22, "volume": 32870072, "typical_volume": 25379557.9, "trend": 192.594572, "fair_value": 131.189174, "relative_strength": 9.037521, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 47.198151, "energy": 70.072116, "activity_lines": [ 206.593333, 199.217818, 191.455312, 191.685259 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 223.03, "volume": 25427018, "typical_volume": 25346269.35, "trend": 193.792074, "fair_value": 132.096439, "relative_strength": 8.79272, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 59.113448, "energy": 79.486524, "activity_lines": [ 213.156667, 204.596545, 194.685931, 193.648835 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }