{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8505e42f-fe2a-4649-b27f-0362de30eaca", "symbol": "HRN", "name": "Horizon Gold Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.644, "architecture_energy": 60.567, "architecture_maturity": 8.442, "architecture_confidence": 80.427, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.27, "rotation_up": 17.29, "upward_expansion": 12.92, "deceleration": 39.54, "rotation_down": 60.4, "downward_expansion": 86.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.989667, 1.004909, 1.037476, 1.084797 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.045, "trend_reference": 1.106431, "distance_from_trend": -0.055521, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.559587, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.867448, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.094234, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.094241, "excess_performance": 0.030535, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.055521, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074451, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.867448, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.295251, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.060942, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.28117, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.094241, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.407415, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 218672, "relative_activity": 1.017872, "balance": 0.407415, "dry_up": 0.526471, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081156, "annualized_volatility": 0.501636, "from_high_reference": -0.358896, "from_low_reference": 1.247312 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.106431, "fair_value_reference": 0.559587, "structural_low": 0.9075, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": -0.022755, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.20548, "worst_return": -0.133333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.038959, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.04977, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.18, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.129868, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.13599, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.52, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.095959, "energy": 15.36933, "activity_lines": [ 1.055667, 1.046727, 1.101776, 1.116381 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.95, "volume": 64839, "typical_volume": 300952.8, "trend": 1.091931, "fair_value": 0.547451, "relative_strength": 4.559933, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.270969, "energy": 32.801248, "activity_lines": [ 1.022333, 1.029364, 1.080667, 1.107547 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.94, "volume": 120398, "typical_volume": 286645.0, "trend": 1.095597, "fair_value": 0.551155, "relative_strength": 2.767485, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.836304, "energy": 44.102634, "activity_lines": [ 0.991, 1.012727, 1.060238, 1.097745 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.95, "volume": 48503, "typical_volume": 253341.95, "trend": 1.100097, "fair_value": 0.555019, "relative_strength": 0.591539, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.839443, "energy": 62.057846, "activity_lines": [ 0.972, 0.999545, 1.042952, 1.088351 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.045, "volume": 218672, "typical_volume": 214832.45, "trend": 1.106431, "fair_value": 0.559587, "relative_strength": 6.094234, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.644127, "energy": 60.566954, "activity_lines": [ 0.989667, 1.004909, 1.037476, 1.084797 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }