{ "ticker": { "uuid": "850dc403-712f-4c30-8540-47e5e2ea3c8f", "symbol": "MERL", "name": "MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.388, "architecture_energy": 18.119, "architecture_maturity": 57.128, "architecture_confidence": 74.619, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.51, "rotation_up": 26.31, "upward_expansion": 57.37, "deceleration": 88.2, "rotation_down": 29.91, "downward_expansion": 21.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.054, 15.161273, 15.093641, 14.846283 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 14.84, "trend_reference": 14.374147, "distance_from_trend": 0.032409, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.799513, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.374136, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.581753, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.160826, "excess_performance": -0.01342, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.032409, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072309, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.374136, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089568, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.105818, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111081, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.160826, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": null, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": null, "balance": null, "dry_up": null, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031256, "annualized_volatility": 0.199788, "from_high_reference": -0.048718, "from_low_reference": 0.267423 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.374147, "fair_value_reference": 10.799513, "structural_low": 12.813589, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.028116, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": 0.008935, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.115718, "worst_return": -0.105802, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.035622, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.048754, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.167585, "worst_return": -0.03989, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.059899, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.008621, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.287606, "worst_return": -0.062487, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.102896, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.122381, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.107642, "worst_return": 0.079626, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015357, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.039623, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.060325, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02944, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027675, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003069, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.084233, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028874, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.134746, "active": 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54.35384, "activity_lines": [ 15.033333, 14.949536, 14.628245, 14.176151 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 15.37, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 121.5, "trend": 13.674588, "fair_value": 10.448688, "relative_strength": -6.502232, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.563378, "energy": 70.779502, "activity_lines": [ 15.170667, 15.03064, 14.73585, 14.29243 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 15.58, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 121.5, "trend": 13.776009, "fair_value": 10.503891, "relative_strength": -3.429967, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.609083, "energy": 79.804462, "activity_lines": [ 15.328, 15.141108, 14.849356, 14.41536 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 15.53, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 81.0, "trend": 13.884311, "fair_value": 10.557344, "relative_strength": -6.007413, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.923847, "energy": 81.864879, "activity_lines": [ 15.420667, 15.233975, 14.944785, 14.52852 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.03, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 40.5, "trend": 13.982852, "fair_value": 10.606334, "relative_strength": -7.830201, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.477841, "energy": 60.526245, "activity_lines": [ 15.33, 15.226, 14.981352, 14.602436 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.99, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 40.5, "trend": 14.081704, "fair_value": 10.653666, "relative_strength": -6.241942, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.825699, "energy": 44.724798, "activity_lines": [ 15.212667, 15.203455, 15.007359, 14.667413 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.36, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 40.5, "trend": 14.189272, "fair_value": 10.704141, "relative_strength": -5.201808, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.091896, "energy": 37.295683, "activity_lines": [ 15.232667, 15.245455, 15.06693, 14.749884 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.13, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 14.286542, "fair_value": 10.752885, "relative_strength": -6.437775, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.793971, "energy": 25.197232, "activity_lines": [ 15.176667, 15.232182, 15.098013, 14.810576 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.84, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 14.374147, "fair_value": 10.799513, "relative_strength": -10.581753, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.387547, "energy": 18.118648, "activity_lines": [ 15.054, 15.161273, 15.093641, 14.846283 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }