{ "ticker": { "uuid": "851225a4-aeb1-4ba1-822d-8b43f2e773b1", "symbol": "QQQL", "name": "Global X Enhanced Nasdaq-100 Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.186, "architecture_energy": 30.291, "architecture_maturity": 68.806, "architecture_confidence": 91.02, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.96, "rotation_up": 31.17, "upward_expansion": 62.29, "deceleration": 85.5, "rotation_down": 30.83, "downward_expansion": 21.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.751333, 35.166363, 34.746476, 33.403097 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 35.66, "trend_reference": 31.766333, "distance_from_trend": 0.122572, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.225044, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.359769, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.71106, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.260962, "excess_performance": 0.14054, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.122572, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069946, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.359769, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003896, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.047111, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050646, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.260962, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.007054, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13780, "relative_activity": 1.993764, "balance": 3.007054, "dry_up": 1.327633, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042905, "annualized_volatility": 0.239072, "from_high_reference": -0.046269, "from_low_reference": 0.382171 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.766333, "fair_value_reference": 26.225044, "structural_low": 26.700001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.012522, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.033253, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.018257, "worst_return": -0.043302, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.08164, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.067834, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.08164, "worst_return": -0.08164, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.281088, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.179907, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.281088, "worst_return": 0.281088, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029382, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018257, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010306, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013791, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029474, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04781, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.119921, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.004082, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053471, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-05-31", "close": 19.85, "volume": 1700, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, 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31.059, "fair_value": 25.927387, "relative_strength": 10.860787, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.855929, "energy": 66.592706, "activity_lines": [ 36.259334, 35.920728, 34.021095, 32.585785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 34.27, "volume": 6791, "typical_volume": 5562.15, "trend": 31.233667, "fair_value": 26.001875, "relative_strength": 3.979954, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.540907, "energy": 50.480709, "activity_lines": [ 35.608667, 35.687818, 34.223905, 32.792946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.16, "volume": 2535, "typical_volume": 5658.5, "trend": 31.403, "fair_value": 26.074071, "relative_strength": 3.2935, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.931812, "energy": 38.729388, "activity_lines": [ 35.02, 35.433273, 34.389572, 32.981742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.849998, "volume": 13598, "typical_volume": 6260.5, "trend": 31.576, "fair_value": 26.142281, "relative_strength": 2.73371, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.08156, "energy": 26.172131, "activity_lines": [ 34.529999, 35.124909, 34.497143, 33.139613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.66, "volume": 13780, "typical_volume": 6911.55, "trend": 31.766333, "fair_value": 26.225044, "relative_strength": 4.71106, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.186214, "energy": 30.29066, "activity_lines": [ 34.751333, 35.166363, 34.746476, 33.403097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }