{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8518db61-ad75-4b24-b7f4-616a8623b7c0", "symbol": "COP", "name": "Copernico Sim S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 89.768, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.462, "architecture_energy": 87.611, "architecture_maturity": 13.016, "architecture_confidence": 74.875, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.5, "rotation_up": 76.28, "upward_expansion": 97.19, "deceleration": 42.03, "rotation_down": 13.16, "downward_expansion": 21.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.12, 8.013636, 7.70619, 7.510645 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 8.0, "trend_reference": 7.355, "distance_from_trend": 0.087695, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.742557, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.393108, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.868698, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.088435, "excess_performance": -0.082456, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.087695, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012388, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.393108, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.108735, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.088687, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057621, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.088435, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.368421, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 750, "relative_activity": 0.454545, "balance": 4.368421, "dry_up": 0.151515, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019231, "annualized_volatility": 0.219394, "from_high_reference": -0.058824, "from_low_reference": 0.259843 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.355, "fair_value_reference": 5.742557, "structural_low": 6.35, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.003731, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.018071, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.166667, "worst_return": -0.103704, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.050721, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.09306, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.351852, "worst_return": -0.192593, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.052811, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.036184, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.268518, "worst_return": -0.388889, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 975.0, "trend": 7.266667, "fair_value": 5.500364, "relative_strength": -13.514901, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.017951, "energy": 29.718918, "activity_lines": [ 7.036667, 6.917273, 6.994286, 7.133548 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 7.05, "volume": 2250, "typical_volume": 1075.0, "trend": 7.256667, "fair_value": 5.512298, "relative_strength": -14.527805, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.923878, "energy": 27.231515, "activity_lines": [ 7.06, 6.958182, 6.985, 7.11957 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 7.4, "volume": 18500, "typical_volume": 2000.0, "trend": 7.265, "fair_value": 5.526476, "relative_strength": -11.017115, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 12.055148, "energy": 23.777863, "activity_lines": [ 7.183333, 7.055455, 7.012857, 7.128817 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 7.6, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1950.0, "trend": 7.276667, "fair_value": 5.542886, "relative_strength": -8.265994, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.04796, "energy": 41.655829, "activity_lines": [ 7.333333, 7.171818, 7.061905, 7.15043 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 7.5, "volume": 1750, "typical_volume": 2012.5, "trend": 7.28, "fair_value": 5.560302, "relative_strength": -12.14924, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.773934, "energy": 68.974681, "activity_lines": [ 7.42, 7.256364, 7.101429, 7.164839 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 7.65, "volume": 1250, "typical_volume": 2037.5, "trend": 7.288333, "fair_value": 5.578934, "relative_strength": -12.536869, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 45.715657, "energy": 78.480838, "activity_lines": [ 7.526667, 7.353636, 7.155238, 7.18871 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 7.6, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2000.0, "trend": 7.291667, "fair_value": 5.597244, "relative_strength": -10.303542, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.388783, "energy": 76.635129, "activity_lines": [ 7.58, 7.424545, 7.202143, 7.208817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 8.0, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 2012.5, "trend": 7.305, "fair_value": 5.619386, "relative_strength": -8.158591, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 68.327315, "energy": 87.990331, "activity_lines": [ 7.73, 7.553636, 7.285952, 7.254516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.0, "volume": 1500, "typical_volume": 2087.5, "trend": 7.311667, "fair_value": 5.642161, "relative_strength": -7.651325, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 62.084262, "energy": 86.055676, "activity_lines": [ 7.84, 7.660909, 7.366667, 7.299355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.2, "volume": 250, "typical_volume": 2100.0, "trend": 7.325, "fair_value": 5.667106, "relative_strength": -3.92953, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.207, "energy": 96.781233, "activity_lines": [ 7.99, 7.789091, 7.463333, 7.356667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.2, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2087.5, "trend": 7.338333, "fair_value": 5.69205, "relative_strength": -3.60041, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.537465, "energy": 93.878685, "activity_lines": [ 8.093333, 7.896364, 7.555952, 7.413118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.2, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1637.5, "trend": 7.35, "fair_value": 5.716994, "relative_strength": -4.110979, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.325427, "energy": 91.548865, "activity_lines": [ 8.16, 7.983636, 7.644286, 7.46871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.0, "volume": 750, "typical_volume": 1650.0, "trend": 7.355, "fair_value": 5.742557, "relative_strength": -8.868698, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.462425, "energy": 87.610902, "activity_lines": [ 8.12, 8.013636, 7.70619, 7.510645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }