{ "ticker": { "uuid": "85198b5b-91fc-47bf-a5fb-2eb288dde8b7", "symbol": "FEZ", "name": "State Street SPDR EURO STOXX 50 ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 54.774, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.664, "architecture_energy": 85.923, "architecture_maturity": 7.825, "architecture_confidence": 87.225, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.91, "rotation_up": 67.15, "upward_expansion": 94.81, "deceleration": 44.89, "rotation_down": 18.42, "downward_expansion": 21.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 1184.418685, 1181.421249, 1167.832337, 1162.186207 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1184.02002, "trend_reference": 1157.611597, "distance_from_trend": 0.022813, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1008.879832, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.173599, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.429607, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.029249, "excess_performance": 0.083916, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.022813, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00587, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.173599, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016128, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.004296, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113553, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.029249, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.423025, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 2.423025, "dry_up": 0.295902, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005409, "annualized_volatility": 0.057338, "from_high_reference": -0.011921, "from_low_reference": 0.075037 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1157.611597, "fair_value_reference": 1008.879832, "structural_low": 1116.556641, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.009182, "positive_rate": 0.586207, "directional_follow_through": 0.586207, "median_excess_return": -0.0041, "regime_survival": 0.793103, "best_return": 0.117941, "worst_return": -0.05234, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.006014, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.010064, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.151312, "worst_return": -0.104424, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.033086, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003168, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.143384, "worst_return": -0.051011, 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"stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.152425, "energy": 89.011065, "activity_lines": [ 1183.912012, 1176.848187, 1162.622912, 1158.679681 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1184.02002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 337.95, "trend": 1157.100163, "fair_value": 1006.177065, "relative_strength": 0.292114, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.313318, "energy": 87.359472, "activity_lines": [ 1184.382683, 1179.65859, 1165.302197, 1160.449442 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1184.02002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 337.95, "trend": 1157.611597, "fair_value": 1008.879832, "relative_strength": 0.429607, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.66424, "energy": 85.922551, "activity_lines": [ 1184.418685, 1181.421249, 1167.832337, 1162.186207 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }