{ "ticker": { "uuid": "851ff386-181f-413a-ac57-25c5ce0d5cae", "symbol": "SHVL", "name": "Shoval Engineering and Construction Ltd", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.973, "architecture_energy": 67.08, "architecture_maturity": 67.544, "architecture_confidence": 90.029, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.37, "rotation_up": 29.9, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 59.49, "rotation_down": 58.38, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.931067, 7.254073, 209.617166, 383.237497 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 6.41, "trend_reference": 602.118438, "distance_from_trend": -0.989354, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 863.257965, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.992575, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -99.2683, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.99359, "excess_performance": -1.02249, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.989354, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.353367, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.992575, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.819349, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.992683, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.619305, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.99359, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.806312, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 326617, "relative_activity": 3.666206, "balance": 1.806312, "dry_up": 1.253643, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 14.882887, "annualized_volatility": 6.245254, "from_high_reference": -0.994654, "from_low_reference": 0.24781 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 602.118438, "fair_value_reference": 863.257965, "structural_low": 5.137, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": 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"trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.632, "volume": 47574, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.302, "volume": 10428, "typical_volume": 72476.95, "trend": 670.132137, "fair_value": 884.674551, "relative_strength": -99.232687, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.338526, "energy": 71.830633, "activity_lines": [ 7.526133, 49.290746, 298.116819, 466.838437 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.779, "volume": 62122, "typical_volume": 74641.05, "trend": 638.871438, "fair_value": 873.836335, "relative_strength": -99.247088, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.186481, "energy": 67.624875, "activity_lines": [ 7.264, 21.773037, 251.590704, 424.041461 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.41, "volume": 326617, "typical_volume": 89088.55, "trend": 602.118438, "fair_value": 863.257965, "relative_strength": -99.2683, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.973391, "energy": 67.079809, "activity_lines": [ 6.931067, 7.254073, 209.617166, 383.237497 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }