{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8520c560-6a50-424b-8390-8a637d51722c", "symbol": "XDPU", "name": "Xtrackers S&P 500 UCITS ETF 4C - USD", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 89.032, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.884, "architecture_energy": 65.646, "architecture_maturity": 87.904, "architecture_confidence": 62.434, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.71, "rotation_up": 52.89, "upward_expansion": 82.49, "deceleration": 71.33, "rotation_down": 28.99, "downward_expansion": 11.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.757733, 12.708473, 12.526781, 12.243041 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.014, "trend_reference": 11.907, "distance_from_trend": 0.092971, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.117077, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.28634, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.176164, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.156389, "excess_performance": -0.014503, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.092971, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041143, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.28634, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033188, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031762, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008816, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.156389, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.300133, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 182433, "relative_activity": 2.541122, "balance": 1.300133, "dry_up": 1.908018, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018773, "annualized_volatility": 0.117325, "from_high_reference": -0.00535, "from_low_reference": 0.245359 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.907, "fair_value_reference": 10.117077, "structural_low": 10.726, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.004781, "positive_rate": 0.608696, "directional_follow_through": 0.608696, "median_excess_return": -0.012442, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.077729, "worst_return": -0.102373, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.067489, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.006983, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.081113, "worst_return": -0.169485, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.096653, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.009579, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.166299, "worst_return": -0.060993, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 10.020301, "relative_strength": -2.782868, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.511146, "energy": 64.823405, "activity_lines": [ 12.6928, 12.633964, 12.331924, 12.063346 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.68, "volume": 82363, "typical_volume": 63764.65, "trend": 11.814667, "fair_value": 10.051571, "relative_strength": -2.392762, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.241523, "energy": 64.137846, "activity_lines": [ 12.694533, 12.651382, 12.397143, 12.122155 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.532, "volume": 91686, "typical_volume": 64895.7, "trend": 11.8576, "fair_value": 10.082577, "relative_strength": -4.075899, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.61415, "energy": 57.95983, "activity_lines": [ 12.645733, 12.636364, 12.442086, 12.168434 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.014, "volume": 182433, "typical_volume": 71792.3, "trend": 11.907, "fair_value": 10.117077, "relative_strength": -3.176164, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.884063, "energy": 65.645894, "activity_lines": [ 12.757733, 12.708473, 12.526781, 12.243041 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }