{ "ticker": { "uuid": "852373a2-bc3f-49e5-b795-b838bff785f4", "symbol": "603258", "name": "Hangzhou Electronic Soul Network Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.375, "architecture_energy": 48.822, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 70.05, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.92, "rotation_up": 27.24, "upward_expansion": 20.08, "deceleration": 66.99, "rotation_down": 47.62, "downward_expansion": 72.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.396, 12.278182, 13.367905, 14.494108 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.09, "trend_reference": 15.999, "distance_from_trend": -0.181824, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.237461, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.35318, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.431293, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.311777, "excess_performance": -0.268573, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.181824, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122445, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.35318, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118629, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.264313, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047551, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.311777, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.307661, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26437452, "relative_activity": 1.818387, "balance": 0.307661, "dry_up": 1.826999, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096433, "annualized_volatility": 0.451963, "from_high_reference": -0.464622, "from_low_reference": 0.217674 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.999, "fair_value_reference": 20.237461, "structural_low": 10.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.023555, "positive_rate": 0.451613, "directional_follow_through": 0.516129, "median_excess_return": -0.020166, "regime_survival": 0.870968, "best_return": 0.256426, "worst_return": -0.261894, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.040935, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.095063, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.308994, "worst_return": -0.246465, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.030687, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.115406, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.158392, "worst_return": -0.371134, "sufficient": true }, { 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89.497347, "activity_lines": [ 12.148667, 12.922364, 14.534095, 15.614839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.4, "volume": 22393384, "typical_volume": 14448037.8, "trend": 16.618, "fair_value": 20.679261, "relative_strength": -35.561087, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.668294, "energy": 85.048195, "activity_lines": [ 11.826, 12.486727, 14.117429, 15.26271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.82, "volume": 16947806, "typical_volume": 14509122.65, "trend": 16.355667, "fair_value": 20.518296, "relative_strength": -38.74254, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.205145, "energy": 77.185248, "activity_lines": [ 11.436, 12.054727, 13.682238, 14.888645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.33, "volume": 40471976, "typical_volume": 14434327.5, "trend": 16.179667, "fair_value": 20.368725, "relative_strength": -23.964448, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.697528, "energy": 61.92395, "activity_lines": [ 12.006, 12.173818, 13.522857, 14.693441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.09, "volume": 26437452, "typical_volume": 14538954.6, "trend": 15.999, "fair_value": 20.237461, "relative_strength": -26.431293, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.375328, "energy": 48.822173, "activity_lines": [ 12.396, 12.278182, 13.367905, 14.494108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }