{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8525148b-d546-4fd1-85af-bbb689255bd7", "symbol": "MRNA", "name": "Moderna Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 27.376, "architecture_energy": 21.849, "architecture_maturity": 64.703, "architecture_confidence": 95.184, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.19, "rotation_up": 21.95, "upward_expansion": 54.41, "deceleration": 91.08, "rotation_down": 38.33, "downward_expansion": 22.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 57.95, 61.218545, 57.81, 55.705075 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 59.17, "trend_reference": 52.708, "distance_from_trend": 0.1226, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 62.520513, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.053591, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 25.317102, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.442819, "excess_performance": 0.255365, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.1226, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.253878, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.053591, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.144542, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.253171, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062086, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.442819, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.53741, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26801006, "relative_activity": 0.802298, "balance": 1.53741, "dry_up": 0.779142, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.165416, "annualized_volatility": 0.706305, "from_high_reference": -0.308762, "from_low_reference": 1.655745 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.708, "fair_value_reference": 62.520513, "structural_low": 36.655, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.106029, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.123684, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.425514, "worst_return": -0.286913, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.368527, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.399861, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.208287, "worst_return": -0.49121, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.566534, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.550508, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.489559, "worst_return": -0.643509, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015161, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053795, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.102784, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.106338, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.264024, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.099359, "active": false }, 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[ 67.997333, 62.709818, 57.428238, 54.751355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 54.07, "volume": 22229082, "typical_volume": 34830971.1, "trend": 51.080333, "fair_value": 63.13391, "relative_strength": 23.403028, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.727928, "energy": 39.828049, "activity_lines": [ 63.282, 61.967273, 57.378286, 54.993419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 54.82, "volume": 27172667, "typical_volume": 34145359.6, "trend": 51.879, "fair_value": 62.791795, "relative_strength": 23.332481, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.335536, "energy": 17.596198, "activity_lines": [ 59.476, 61.269636, 57.392381, 55.234688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 59.17, "volume": 26801006, "typical_volume": 33405308.95, "trend": 52.708, "fair_value": 62.520513, "relative_strength": 25.317102, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.376137, "energy": 21.848516, "activity_lines": [ 57.95, 61.218545, 57.81, 55.705075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }