{ "ticker": { "uuid": "852f4943-5e27-4289-ad93-4427aa058249", "symbol": "EX01", "name": "iShares ATX UCITS ETF (DE)", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.824, "architecture_energy": 63.901, "architecture_maturity": 86.728, "architecture_confidence": 76.824, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.07, "rotation_up": 57.16, "upward_expansion": 83.97, "deceleration": 68.51, "rotation_down": 27.17, "downward_expansion": 10.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 70.752001, 70.26474, 68.049323, 65.945486 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 72.910004, "trend_reference": 63.529078, "distance_from_trend": 0.147664, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.750568, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.629253, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.267504, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.203533, "excess_performance": 0.029286, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.147664, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087559, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.629253, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.116023, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.022675, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019267, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.203533, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.095282, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 879, "relative_activity": 1.730656, "balance": 2.095282, "dry_up": 1.211853, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033796, "annualized_volatility": 0.187035, "from_high_reference": -0.01473, "from_low_reference": 0.494211 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 63.529078, "fair_value_reference": 44.750568, "structural_low": 53.810001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.024294, "positive_rate": 0.605263, "directional_follow_through": 0.605263, "median_excess_return": 0.001569, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.129427, "worst_return": -0.12824, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.045181, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.005977, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.185551, "worst_return": -0.197338, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.180035, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.023071, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.261338, "worst_return": -0.257976, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"relative_strength": 1.104158, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.212566, "energy": 76.814774, "activity_lines": [ 69.878001, 68.835921, 66.160594, 64.34877 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 69.779999, "volume": 190, "typical_volume": 544.0, "trend": 62.604411, "fair_value": 44.239382, "relative_strength": 0.934025, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.918996, "energy": 63.34107, "activity_lines": [ 69.785334, 69.237767, 66.747297, 64.841044 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 69.839996, "volume": 936, "typical_volume": 485.4, "trend": 63.026744, "fair_value": 44.483378, "relative_strength": 0.966907, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.679747, "energy": 56.144257, "activity_lines": [ 69.754666, 69.523131, 67.284095, 65.307856 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 72.910004, "volume": 879, "typical_volume": 507.9, "trend": 63.529078, "fair_value": 44.750568, "relative_strength": 2.267504, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.823621, "energy": 63.901435, "activity_lines": [ 70.752001, 70.26474, 68.049323, 65.945486 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }