{ "ticker": { "uuid": "852f849c-7da3-4cfd-a375-14a99044efeb", "symbol": "JGSE", "name": "JPM Global Research Enhanced Index Equity SRI Paris Aligned Active UCITS ETF - EUR Hedged (acc)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 72.661, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 90.144, "architecture_energy": 70.005, "architecture_maturity": 64.629, "architecture_confidence": 60.948, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.01, "rotation_up": 58.05, "upward_expansion": 82.43, "deceleration": 70.57, "rotation_down": 27.11, "downward_expansion": 11.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.812666, 35.654181, 35.295214, 34.733871 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 36.779999, "trend_reference": 34.141333, "distance_from_trend": 0.077287, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.90902, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.272267, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.646277, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.104339, "excess_performance": -0.066553, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.077287, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032193, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.272267, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04062, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.046463, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017584, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.104339, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.077765, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 618, "relative_activity": 0.140884, "balance": 1.077765, "dry_up": 0.114781, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014002, "annualized_volatility": 0.145351, "from_high_reference": -0.001358, "from_low_reference": 0.256791 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.141333, "fair_value_reference": 28.90902, "structural_low": 30.584999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.012347, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.003095, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.06202, "worst_return": -0.057499, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.060171, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.004977, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.081838, "worst_return": 0.013556, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.09745, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.030695, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.146933, "worst_return": 0.047967, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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71.88941, "activity_lines": [ 35.424667, 35.407183, 34.706858, 34.249302 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.889999, "volume": 618, "typical_volume": 4564.2, "trend": 33.842334, "fair_value": 28.76831, "relative_strength": -3.962107, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.228238, "energy": 66.049534, "activity_lines": [ 35.586, 35.510909, 34.882715, 34.388226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.174999, "volume": 778, "typical_volume": 4603.1, "trend": 33.924167, "fair_value": 28.812192, "relative_strength": -5.630353, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.509673, "energy": 60.317818, "activity_lines": [ 35.466666, 35.465273, 34.978167, 34.474205 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.174999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4603.1, "trend": 34.006, "fair_value": 28.855476, "relative_strength": -6.154761, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.888312, "energy": 47.074671, "activity_lines": [ 35.372999, 35.413273, 35.064715, 34.554903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.779999, "volume": 618, "typical_volume": 4386.6, "trend": 34.141333, "fair_value": 28.90902, "relative_strength": -4.646277, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.144475, "energy": 70.004908, "activity_lines": [ 35.812666, 35.654181, 35.295214, 34.733871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }