{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8530605b-41b3-41bd-a36b-bb0957d13661", "symbol": "YELN-F2", "name": "Yelin Lapidot Mutual Funds Ltd. - YLETF (4A) S&P 500 Currency Hedged", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.177, "architecture_energy": 63.295, "architecture_maturity": 97.0, "architecture_confidence": 65.074, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.38, "rotation_up": 27.99, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 49.77, "downward_expansion": 70.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 74.708, 74.321273, 1590.022238, 2885.351978 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 76.33, "trend_reference": 4387.816667, "distance_from_trend": -0.982604, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5557.473485, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.986265, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.740028, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.988745, "excess_performance": -1.017645, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.982604, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.338187, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.986265, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.195488, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.9874, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.829611, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.988745, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.673005, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 71254, "relative_activity": 1.003621, "balance": 0.673005, "dry_up": 1.811113, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.495258, "annualized_volatility": 6.357219, "from_high_reference": -0.98968, "from_low_reference": 0.05501 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4387.816667, "fair_value_reference": 5557.473485, "structural_low": 72.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.009731, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.010325, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.012676, "worst_return": -0.032138, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006523, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017869, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-02-02", "close": 4948.0, "volume": 100635, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-02-09", "close": 5028.0, "volume": 4988, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-02-16", "close": 5088.0, "volume": 5855, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.296215, "energy": 68.471415, "activity_lines": [ 73.978, 469.618545, 2665.37819, 3807.806065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 73.5, "volume": 65128, "typical_volume": 79593.5, "trend": 4839.838, "fair_value": 5641.816462, "relative_strength": -98.873978, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.219342, "energy": 68.258396, "activity_lines": [ 73.855333, 205.479636, 2275.127524, 3485.630495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 74.03, "volume": 139483, "typical_volume": 71373.9, "trend": 4614.839, "fair_value": 5599.314275, "relative_strength": -98.806141, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.747222, "energy": 64.335655, "activity_lines": [ 73.946667, 73.900727, 1916.791619, 3178.159011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 76.33, "volume": 71254, "typical_volume": 70996.95, "trend": 4387.816667, "fair_value": 5557.473485, "relative_strength": -98.740028, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.177259, "energy": 63.29488, "activity_lines": [ 74.708, 74.321273, 1590.022238, 2885.351978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }