{ "ticker": { "uuid": "853114e5-7eb8-4e31-8717-40c641df6ad5", "symbol": "TECL", "name": "DIREXION DAILY TECHNOLOGY BULL 3X ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.225, "architecture_energy": 21.957, "architecture_maturity": 73.718, "architecture_confidence": 94.113, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.91, "rotation_up": 28.52, "upward_expansion": 56.19, "deceleration": 87.94, "rotation_down": 29.36, "downward_expansion": 17.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 190.038667, 194.956295, 193.933241, 175.971575 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 211.64, "trend_reference": 153.738003, "distance_from_trend": 0.376628, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 93.251398, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.269564, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 39.427458, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.971022, "excess_performance": 0.845397, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.376628, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.214088, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.269564, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135399, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.394275, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.22204, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.971022, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.227077, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3462789, "relative_activity": 0.575988, "balance": 1.227077, "dry_up": 0.670723, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.193949, "annualized_volatility": 0.835289, "from_high_reference": -0.230754, "from_low_reference": 1.815859 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 153.738003, "fair_value_reference": 93.251398, "structural_low": 75.16, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.026726, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.02253, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.318877, "worst_return": -0.105679, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.256336, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.188083, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.396763, "worst_return": -0.137342, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.44992, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.302517, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.098974, "worst_return": -0.094642, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.283432, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.212959, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.281601, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.122684, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.114163, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", 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40.025427, "activity_lines": [ 207.60108, 209.710827, 181.23786, 161.932963 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 211.7, "volume": 3750403, "typical_volume": 6625918.05, "trend": 145.174542, "fair_value": 89.763149, "relative_strength": 48.238841, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.064923, "energy": 36.155133, "activity_lines": [ 208.289085, 211.088413, 186.661185, 166.428249 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 177.65, "volume": 4438668, "typical_volume": 6585605.25, "trend": 147.135756, "fair_value": 90.569907, "relative_strength": 25.261994, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.750031, "energy": 22.114514, "activity_lines": [ 197.006343, 205.19888, 188.339163, 168.52344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 177.06, "volume": 2480333, "typical_volume": 6321392.0, "trend": 148.908815, "fair_value": 91.363618, "relative_strength": 24.49872, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.424718, "energy": 21.497435, "activity_lines": [ 188.035333, 199.479314, 189.594774, 170.454037 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 173.55, "volume": 5747523, "typical_volume": 6264658.95, "trend": 150.759334, "fair_value": 92.173979, "relative_strength": 19.697001, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.193924, "energy": 19.363659, "activity_lines": [ 181.840667, 193.445135, 190.135607, 172.04379 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 211.64, "volume": 3462789, "typical_volume": 6011911.0, "trend": 153.738003, "fair_value": 93.251398, "relative_strength": 39.427458, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.225078, "energy": 21.95713, "activity_lines": [ 190.038667, 194.956295, 193.933241, 175.971575 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }