{ "ticker": { "uuid": "853718a6-9185-4c34-b2ae-a7274e7a7c33", "symbol": "EDRY", "name": "EuroDry Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.586, "architecture_energy": 82.631, "architecture_maturity": 22.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.245, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.53, "rotation_up": 75.85, "upward_expansion": 88.21, "deceleration": 47.7, "rotation_down": 9.21, "downward_expansion": 17.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.877333, 25.463273, 23.841429, 22.624129 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 34.72, "trend_reference": 20.626067, "distance_from_trend": 0.683307, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.490216, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.105491, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 80.066179, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.695652, "excess_performance": 1.508199, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.683307, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.219664, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.105491, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.725227, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.800662, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.458085, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.695652, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.446884, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 445590, "relative_activity": 1.958291, "balance": 4.446884, "dry_up": 2.387701, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107393, "annualized_volatility": 0.697963, "from_high_reference": -0.002299, "from_low_reference": 2.463964 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.626067, "fair_value_reference": 16.490216, "structural_low": 12.94, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.006382, "positive_rate": 0.518519, "directional_follow_through": 0.518519, "median_excess_return": 0.001299, "regime_survival": 0.703704, "best_return": 0.541374, "worst_return": -0.388192, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.031205, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.052247, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.482025, "worst_return": -0.556281, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.20351, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.379983, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.855202, "worst_return": -0.637688, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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22.341333, 22.386727, 21.692571, 20.443315 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 22.0, "volume": 162915, "typical_volume": 159565.55, "trend": 18.762927, "fair_value": 16.167877, "relative_strength": 20.549555, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.632124, "energy": 22.385837, "activity_lines": [ 22.203333, 22.357636, 21.780619, 20.670825 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.11, "volume": 171620, "typical_volume": 155969.7, "trend": 19.064733, "fair_value": 16.220826, "relative_strength": 25.141071, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.611332, "energy": 18.684944, "activity_lines": [ 22.129333, 22.317091, 21.862476, 20.886766 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.1, "volume": 1168610, "typical_volume": 201364.6, "trend": 19.439733, "fair_value": 16.283165, "relative_strength": 36.948382, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.177465, "energy": 30.467348, "activity_lines": [ 22.742, 22.630364, 22.133238, 21.211622 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.51, "volume": 387372, "typical_volume": 213692.05, "trend": 19.8964, "fair_value": 16.361435, "relative_strength": 47.725432, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.07418, "energy": 47.082941, "activity_lines": [ 24.091333, 23.328364, 22.614952, 21.667768 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.72, "volume": 445590, "typical_volume": 227540.25, "trend": 20.626067, "fair_value": 16.490216, "relative_strength": 80.066179, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.585608, "energy": 82.630509, "activity_lines": [ 27.877333, 25.463273, 23.841429, 22.624129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }