{ "ticker": { "uuid": "853cdffb-f994-4cc0-b038-2261504d9bc2", "symbol": "NC", "name": "NACCO Industries Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 88.84, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -82.917, "architecture_energy": 74.377, "architecture_maturity": 16.105, "architecture_confidence": 78.321, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.11, "rotation_up": 9.59, "upward_expansion": 15.23, "deceleration": 37.29, "rotation_down": 79.79, "downward_expansion": 93.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.676667, 47.324909, 48.614575, 49.264624 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 42.37, "trend_reference": 49.924322, "distance_from_trend": -0.151315, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.580993, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.158252, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.100898, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.210819, "excess_performance": -0.336444, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.151315, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006204, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.158252, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.267819, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.201009, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.206723, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.210819, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.882247, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 53855, "relative_activity": 0.95034, "balance": 0.882247, "dry_up": 0.954328, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078866, "annualized_volatility": 0.372063, "from_high_reference": -0.283234, "from_low_reference": 0.221726 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.924322, "fair_value_reference": 36.580993, "structural_low": 41.29, 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33.799163, "activity_lines": [ 51.651841, 50.969237, 50.615213, 50.592122 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 48.4, "volume": 43742, "typical_volume": 60200.6, "trend": 50.20997, "fair_value": 36.130589, "relative_strength": -5.134694, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.757708, "energy": 4.474905, "activity_lines": [ 50.554667, 50.599492, 50.364148, 50.476417 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 47.33, "volume": 81541, "typical_volume": 61991.95, "trend": 50.155848, "fair_value": 36.229432, "relative_strength": -8.445508, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.602713, "energy": 18.332983, "activity_lines": [ 49.23, 50.06609, 50.042494, 50.290613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 47.97, "volume": 57648, "typical_volume": 62694.95, "trend": 50.130984, "fair_value": 36.327215, "relative_strength": -5.800066, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.593248, "energy": 33.567796, "activity_lines": [ 48.510667, 49.657612, 49.819476, 50.14959 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.81, "volume": 64638, "typical_volume": 60378.95, "trend": 50.083632, "fair_value": 36.408779, "relative_strength": -7.564256, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.563346, "energy": 56.893526, "activity_lines": [ 47.762, 49.077113, 49.528214, 49.935333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.4, "volume": 40183, "typical_volume": 57174.0, "trend": 50.082362, "fair_value": 36.516141, "relative_strength": -7.552053, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.314801, "energy": 59.203523, "activity_lines": [ 47.414, 48.646138, 49.301934, 49.762196 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.37, "volume": 53855, "typical_volume": 56669.2, "trend": 49.924322, "fair_value": 36.580993, "relative_strength": -20.100898, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.91739, "energy": 74.37707, "activity_lines": [ 45.676667, 47.324909, 48.614575, 49.264624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }