{ "ticker": { "uuid": "85432389-e2c6-408a-8cbe-4f9e4819b735", "symbol": "601456", "name": "Guolian Minsheng Securities Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.124, "architecture_energy": 25.933, "architecture_maturity": 80.256, "architecture_confidence": 84.286, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.34, "rotation_up": 23.4, "upward_expansion": 2.51, "deceleration": 56.9, "rotation_down": 40.07, "downward_expansion": 73.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.930658, 8.941208, 9.023713, 9.12377 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.96, "trend_reference": 9.292311, "distance_from_trend": -0.035762, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.533968, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.149418, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.082098, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.07724, "excess_performance": -0.034036, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.035762, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0529, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.149418, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060348, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.100821, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051365, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.07724, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.441196, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 90569974, "relative_activity": 0.851021, "balance": 0.441196, "dry_up": 0.91678, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046781, "annualized_volatility": 0.182694, "from_high_reference": -0.2917, "from_low_reference": 0.044289 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.292311, "fair_value_reference": 10.533968, "structural_low": 8.58, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.020921, "positive_rate": 0.64, "directional_follow_through": 0.36, "median_excess_return": 0.01895, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.184265, "worst_return": -0.097612, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.037825, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.014536, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.343208, "worst_return": -0.088496, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.066211, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.012828, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.239638, "worst_return": -0.1337, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"direction": -54.155463, "energy": 37.603707, "activity_lines": [ 8.901131, 8.953326, 9.082737, 9.210509 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.830135, "volume": 106591647, "typical_volume": 108662834.35, "trend": 9.377978, "fair_value": 10.534848, "relative_strength": -9.620485, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.474599, "energy": 36.559507, "activity_lines": [ 8.86523, 8.924093, 9.050373, 9.171552 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.01, "volume": 81317018, "typical_volume": 107336467.25, "trend": 9.332644, "fair_value": 10.534191, "relative_strength": -7.623132, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.481564, "energy": 32.245773, "activity_lines": [ 8.911942, 8.93665, 9.038424, 9.147811 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.96, "volume": 90569974, "typical_volume": 106425024.8, "trend": 9.292311, "fair_value": 10.533968, "relative_strength": -10.082098, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.124408, "energy": 25.932561, "activity_lines": [ 8.930658, 8.941208, 9.023713, 9.12377 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }