{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "85447993-a43f-45eb-b9be-3487c83da442",
    "symbol": "SVR",
    "name": "iShares Silver Bullion ETF (CAD-Hedged)",
    "exchange": "TOR",
    "country": "CA",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GSPTSE",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -64.442,
    "architecture_energy": 55.78,
    "architecture_maturity": 33.586,
    "architecture_confidence": 95.794,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 12.35,
        "rotation_up": 23.19,
        "upward_expansion": 9.13,
        "deceleration": 53.11,
        "rotation_down": 60.01,
        "downward_expansion": 84.8
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        27.421333,
        27.742909,
        30.09181,
        31.752839
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 29.219999,
    "trend_reference": 34.271667,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.147401,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 19.406923,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.505648,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -13.286758,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.195041,
    "excess_performance": -0.315463,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.147401,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.004184,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.505648,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.571219,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.132868,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.380998,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.195041,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.418444,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 215600,
      "relative_activity": 0.69563,
      "balance": 0.418444,
      "dry_up": 0.736203,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.088559,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.490538,
      "from_high_reference": -0.481823,
      "from_low_reference": 0.659284
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 34.271667,
      "fair_value_reference": 19.406923,
      "structural_low": 25.25,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 18,
        "median_return": 0.0282,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.016819,
        "regime_survival": 0.722222,
        "best_return": 0.18453,
        "worst_return": -0.134652,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.058775,
        "positive_rate": 0.571429,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.428571,
        "median_excess_return": -0.002167,
        "regime_survival": 0.428571,
        "best_return": 0.244991,
        "worst_return": -0.15653,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.019878,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.01595,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.28613,
        "worst_return": -0.132439,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.077295,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.066006,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.513094,
        "worst_return": -0.143212,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-03-08",
        "end": "2024-03-15",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.033841,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-03-22",
        "end": "2024-07-26",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.122924,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-02",
        "end": "2024-09-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.102453,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-04",
        "end": "2024-11-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.067308,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-11-22",
        "end": "2024-12-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.077888,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-01-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.01763,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-24",
        "end": "2025-02-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.044929,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-02-14",
        "end": "2025-02-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.010911,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-28",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.038,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.083916,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-06-13",
        "end": "2026-03-06",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 1.259067,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-03-13",
        "end": "2026-06-12",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.161446,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-06-19",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.10179,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-07-03",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.015641,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 1459110.0,
        "trend": 32.766333,
        "fair_value": 17.715833,
        "relative_strength": 19.055147,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 20.209584,
        "energy": 12.735038,
        "activity_lines": [
          35.400666,
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          36.518571,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 37.130001,
        "volume": 456300,
        "typical_volume": 1445330.0,
        "trend": 33.222333,
        "fair_value": 17.877885,
        "relative_strength": 24.813005,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 29.76902,
        "energy": 17.835618,
        "activity_lines": [
          36.022,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 35.43,
        "volume": 818900,
        "typical_volume": 1444785.0,
        "trend": 33.587666,
        "fair_value": 18.029615,
        "relative_strength": 18.775251,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "direction": 25.717106,
        "energy": 12.349842,
        "activity_lines": [
          35.848667,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 35.0,
        "volume": 349600,
        "typical_volume": 1384155.0,
        "trend": 34.0,
        "fair_value": 18.180128,
        "relative_strength": 14.18082,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 21.041338,
        "energy": 9.460482,
        "activity_lines": [
          35.522667,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 35.060001,
        "volume": 379800,
        "typical_volume": 1319530.0,
        "trend": 34.415666,
        "fair_value": 18.33032,
        "relative_strength": 12.40684,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 5.170813,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 31.610001,
        "volume": 306700,
        "typical_volume": 1204415.0,
        "trend": 34.716,
        "fair_value": 18.45641,
        "relative_strength": 1.796272,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -36.502768,
        "energy": 31.055995,
        "activity_lines": [
          34.085334,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 31.32,
        "volume": 68000,
        "typical_volume": 1100235.0,
        "trend": 34.973666,
        "fair_value": 18.58109,
        "relative_strength": -1.159383,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -37.479307,
        "energy": 48.294786,
        "activity_lines": [
          32.91,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "typical_volume": 769265.0,
        "trend": 35.202333,
        "fair_value": 18.703526,
        "relative_strength": -5.321493,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -46.029399,
        "energy": 62.384931,
        "activity_lines": [
          31.735334,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 27.09,
        "volume": 48300,
        "typical_volume": 607650.0,
        "trend": 35.224666,
        "fair_value": 18.805256,
        "relative_strength": -15.223982,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -84.960297,
        "energy": 84.351831,
        "activity_lines": [
          29.888667,
          31.952182,
          33.579238,
          34.705591
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 28.77,
        "volume": 21800,
        "typical_volume": 515415.0,
        "trend": 35.273,
        "fair_value": 18.916859,
        "relative_strength": -10.959057,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -69.78386,
        "energy": 80.631214,
        "activity_lines": [
          29.129333,
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          32.992048,
          34.289161
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 27.290001,
        "volume": 203500,
        "typical_volume": 474795.0,
        "trend": 35.214,
        "fair_value": 19.013205,
        "relative_strength": -15.837599,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -75.517398,
        "energy": 84.138872,
        "activity_lines": [
          28.296,
          30.161273,
          32.298667,
          33.774129
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 25.700001,
        "volume": 205200,
        "typical_volume": 421920.0,
        "trend": 35.019,
        "fair_value": 19.100449,
        "relative_strength": -20.749938,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -80.693969,
        "energy": 89.021143,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.220667,
          29.036546,
          31.511286,
          33.160323
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 26.709999,
        "volume": 313000,
        "typical_volume": 370315.0,
        "trend": 34.785667,
        "fair_value": 19.194872,
        "relative_strength": -18.040841,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -69.009021,
        "energy": 80.755072,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.856667,
          28.303273,
          30.905095,
          32.624258
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 26.6,
        "volume": 178900,
        "typical_volume": 343205.0,
        "trend": 34.541333,
        "fair_value": 19.29109,
        "relative_strength": -18.226016,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -68.434692,
        "energy": 76.24984,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.686,
          27.708546,
          30.348095,
          32.096151
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 29.219999,
        "volume": 215600,
        "typical_volume": 309935.0,
        "trend": 34.271667,
        "fair_value": 19.406923,
        "relative_strength": -13.286758,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -64.442264,
        "energy": 55.779678,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.421333,
          27.742909,
          30.09181,
          31.752839
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}