{ "ticker": { "uuid": "854890c6-b6fc-4e84-983e-32c40e0c1393", "symbol": "000021", "name": "Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.585, "architecture_energy": 26.349, "architecture_maturity": 69.333, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.9, "rotation_up": 24.43, "upward_expansion": 57.19, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 38.8, "downward_expansion": 20.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.004666, 44.324044, 41.452134, 38.646535 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 40.849998, "trend_reference": 35.393469, "distance_from_trend": 0.154168, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.175159, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.929147, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 30.706824, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.25731, "excess_performance": 0.24991, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.154168, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.229849, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.929147, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.324686, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.307068, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.263549, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.25731, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.240164, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 741658750, "relative_activity": 1.298075, "balance": 3.240164, "dry_up": 1.53241, "accumulation_observations": 7, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.215197, "annualized_volatility": 0.868151, "from_high_reference": -0.339638, "from_low_reference": 1.244505 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.393469, "fair_value_reference": 21.175159, "structural_low": 25.48, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.045761, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.074272, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.256432, "worst_return": -0.191556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.017428, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.019828, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.527531, "worst_return": -0.260536, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.413082, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.246023, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.879485, "worst_return": -0.407233, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046866, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009321, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011892, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.084043, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.134862, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.322824, "active": 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"typical_volume": 533408705.45, "trend": 33.849469, "fair_value": 20.786933, "relative_strength": 34.558562, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.803313, "energy": 59.608893, "activity_lines": [ 49.698666, 46.575748, 40.541525, 37.557034 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.990002, "volume": 909132735, "typical_volume": 550043289.9, "trend": 34.458802, "fair_value": 20.933048, "relative_strength": 42.398709, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.000618, "energy": 45.913085, "activity_lines": [ 47.003333, 46.284328, 41.072887, 38.08223 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.23, "volume": 913465363, "typical_volume": 570366754.0, "trend": 34.874469, "fair_value": 21.035041, "relative_strength": 26.87015, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.970828, "energy": 19.822735, "activity_lines": [ 42.858, 44.972507, 41.105153, 38.261017 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.849998, "volume": 741658750, "typical_volume": 571352988.4, "trend": 35.393469, "fair_value": 21.175159, "relative_strength": 30.706824, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.585129, "energy": 26.349192, "activity_lines": [ 41.004666, 44.324044, 41.452134, 38.646535 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }